Populism is diminishing democracies from Philippines to US
Why did he win? His main promise was to crack down on crime, which is, as ever, a plague in The Philippines.
But Duterte’s victory follows six years of outstandingly good government by Filipino standards under the outgoing Benigno Aquino III, which saw the most rapid economic growth in the country since the earliest days of Ferdinand Marcos.
When ordinary voters were asked why they supported a figure such as Duterte, many of them said the same thing that Donald Trump’s new supporters say in the US: he seems authentic.
Authentic is the new vile word of democratic politics. Being authentic seems to mean you rejoice in your ignorance, you are dedicated to vulgarity and abuse, and your policies are incoherent.
The US also reached a new stage in the rise of populism this week. Oddly, it didn’t directly involve Trump. Bernie Sanders, the 74-year-old socialist from Vermont, smashed Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary in West Virginia. He has won 19 states to her 23. Sanders calls for a revolution in politics; he wants to implement socialism, he wants to smash up the banks, cut the military, impose radical new climate change policies, soak the top 1 per cent, make the rich pay and all the rest, without any idea about how these impulses might be reconciled with each other, or with the limitations of the physical universe.
But here’s the thing that was different this week; here is the marker of a new paradigm:
one-third of those who voted for Sanders in West Virginia say that if the US presidential election in November is a contest between Clinton and Trump, they will vote for Trump rather than Sanders’s political stablemate Clinton.
one-third of those who voted for Sanders in West Virginia say that if the US presidential election in November is a contest between Clinton and Trump, they will vote for Trump rather than Sanders’s political stablemate Clinton.
In a further radical development, new polls have Trump neck and neck with Clinton, especially in the key battleground states.
A month ago, Clinton led Trump by wide margins. Clinton is the last defender of centrist politics in the US, and her position has been steadily worsening for weeks.
There are differences between left-wing populism and right-wing populism.
Left-wing populism wants to smash capitalism in the interests of the climate, it tends not to be so nationalistic, though outside the US it is virulently anti-American, and it is mostly pro-gay rights.
Right-wing populism is intensely nationalistic and often nativist. It wants to smash capitalism, as it currently works, in the interest of giving more government money to the middle class.
But the common core of left and right populism is much more important than their differences. The common core is a seething anger beyond proportion to any injustice or imperfection that really exists in the society. The common core is a determination to smash politics-as-usual, with all its messy compromises.
The common core is a demand that government give more and perhaps endless transfer payments to the middle classes as well as to the poor. The common core is a hatred of international trade, which is really a hatred of foreigners, made palatable to the Left and newly attractive to the Right. The common core is a demonisation of any political competitor. And the common core is a loss of any sense of balance, restraint, coherence or responsibility, and an absolute contempt for the proper processes of democracy.
The third great moment of populist triumph this week was the impeachment by the Brazilian Senate of the democratically elected president, Dilma Rousseff.
There are lots of reasons to be critical of Rousseff. Brazil is suffering recession. Rousseff is not a very attractive politician. But she was impeached for allegedly fudging the figures of the national budget, surely a “crime” of which most governments are guilty, and impeached by a congress with dozens of members who are facing charges of actual corruption, of dishonestly putting money in their own pockets.
But that is the character of the new populism, a contempt for traditional restraints. This wave is breaking everywhere. Centrist politics is in full, panicked retreat.
A couple of weeks ago, Austria held a presidential election. Because no candidate won 50 per cent of the vote there will need to be a second round. The winner in the first round was the gun-toting Norbert Hofer of the far-right Freedom Party. Second placegetter was Alexander Van der Bellen from the Green Party.
The Austrian centre is mortally wounded. For the first time since 1945, neither the Social Democrats nor the Christian democrats will win Austria’s presidency. Hofer says he will veto Europe’s free-trade deal with the US, he is ardently anti-immigrant, but he is pro-welfare payments.
Eastern Europe is swinging away from moderate centrist democracy, which replaced communism in what seemed a historic and enduring triumph, and is instead heading towards populist authoritarianism.
Hungary’s government says it wants to build an “illiberal state”.
The Polish government wants the media to do as the government tells it to do.
The Czech President joins in anti-Muslim rallies.
Populism is destroying rational economics, with unknowable consequences. In Britain the populist UK Independence Party, which made huge gains in recent local council and Welsh assembly elections, started life as Eurosceptic and economically rationalist, arguing for smaller government and lower taxes.
It has abandoned economic rationalism and favours greater government money for almost everybody. It is leading a populist assault notionally from the right, but which is potentially more dangerous to the British Labour Party than to the Conservatives.
One central feature of populism is that its proponents know they will almost certainly never have to make the real, painful, inevitable compromises of effective government. They can and do promise anything and everything, things that cannot go together.
Trump says he will pay down $US19 trillion of debt, increase military spending, protect social entitlements and balance the budget. It can’t be done, by him or by anyone else.
A new Italian party promises to double the pension. This will bankrupt the country. It’s not about economics, they say, but justice.
The attachment of tremendous moral intensity to irrational policy positions is the essence of populism. Populism has brought about the massive growth of parties that don’t care for compromise.
In 1955, 96 per cent of the British electorate voted Conservative or Labour. Both of these parties had coherent policy packages that made the essential compromises of reality and offered alternative but coherent policy platforms.
Last year, barely two-thirds of Brits voted for either of the main parties. This is not a splendid flowering of diversity but a flight from responsibility.
The same trends are evident in Australia. In 1975, 95 per cent of the vote went to the Coalition or to Labor. In 2013, it was little more than three-quarters in the House of Representatives and less in the Senate.
There are many reasons people vote for minor parties, but there is no escaping the fact no minor party really offers a coherent program in which means and ends are matched. Those minor parties that used to preach fiscal discipline, such as Germany’s venerable Free Democrats, have disappeared.
Our own politics are profoundly shaped by the global rise of populism. This is obscured only a little by the eclipse of the Palmer United Party. That came about for two clear reasons unrelated to policy: the commercial demise of Queensland Nickel and the personal divisions within the PUP Senate team. But, as in the US, it is our main parties that are now becoming hostages to populism or enthusiastic vehicles for it.
The Liberal-National government under Malcolm Turnbull has virtually given up on fiscal consolidation. And fiscal consolidation, of course — the idea that you might take something away from some voters to balance the budget, live within your means, avoid a long-term debt crisis, keep the taxation burden in order, promote wider economic growth — is the very opposite of populism.
So while the Turnbull government is not a populist avatar, it is a prisoner of populism. Even its rhetoric is now unconsciously apeing the rhetoric of the populist Occupy Wall Street movement, the anti-1 per cent movement, the movement that demonises high-income earners.
Thus in justifying perfectly defensible changes to superannuation arrangements, Scott Morrison this week commented that if you are in the top 1 per cent, you can afford to pay some more tax.
Here is the new Liberal response to populism — a mild, measured, well-mannered offer to manage the populist impulse less damagingly than Labor would. But gone is the rhetoric of smaller government, deregulation or any real effort to lower taxes.
If the Coalition is a prisoner of the new populism, Labor is its enthusiastic proponent. At a time when the nation faces a $40 billion deficit and already pays more than $12bn a year in interest, when foreign debt is $1 trillion, when our terms of trade have moved decisively against us, Bill Shorten offers a massive new burst of social spending, demonising of the banks, entrenched labour market rigidity to protect unions and lock the marginalised out of work, and endlessly increased welfare to keep them dependent forevermore.
All this at a time when the evidence has never been weaker that increased spending on education, along the lines of the huge increases we have had during the past 1½ decades, produces any tangible benefit.
One central part of populism is an utter distrust of government and the integrity of government processes. So all claims for good policy are inherently suspect. The only thing the electorate accepts from government is money. More transfer payments, more money for health and education, salary increases for public servants of all kinds.
The electorate just about believes government can deliver on this, but good economic policy, long-term tax relief, these are now meaningless. All of that resides in a realm of policy discussion much of the electorate no longer takes seriously.
What has caused this global rise of populism? That is a very big question. Here are some initial, sketchy suggestions.
There is obvious anger at the income inequality that seems to have been exacerbated by the global financial crisis of nearly a decade ago, and the stagnation, especially in the US, of wages for the bottom half of society.
But that alone is a most unsatisfactory explanation. The West endured the Depression and resorted only to the moderate efforts of Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the US and a Labor government in Australia. There was no Donald Trump or anything like him.
Instead, here are a few other longer-term likely culprits.
One is the education system. Western education, at school and university level, is infused with the idea that the West is corrupt and wicked in all its works, that capitalism is destroying the environment, that Western history is one long brutal story of military conquest, that Western society is sexist, racist, homophobic, militarist, that Western religion is irrational.
Often an exaggerated hostility to the West is the chief connecting thread of education. The examples of this are countless. Israel is demonised in part because it is a Western-patterned society in the Middle East, so naturally Victorian Certificate of Education students study a locally written play depicting Israel as evil and the oppressor of the Palestinians.
Second, US politics, and therefore global politics, has undergone a long discrediting. Watergate under Richard Nixon shocked Americans and convinced them that their president can lie and cheat. Bill Clinton’s scandal with Monica Lewinsky was not so important in itself, but Clinton lied about it under oath, proving that anything goes.
And the Republicans responded in spades with abuse. Both sides became hyper-partisan. They spoke about each other in terms of extravagant disrespect in a way that Americans had not been accustomed to speaking of their political leaders.
Then came the failures of Iraq and the sense again, even if not justified, that the government had lied to the people. The disappointment of Barack Obama followed. And US political culture lends its character in some measure to democratic political culture everywhere. There is nothing more derivative than allegedly spontaneous populist outrage.
Third, American popular culture, which in truth is global popular culture, has for a few decades now produced film after film, TV series after TV series, in which the villain is the US government, the CIA or a big corporation. That is now many people’s mental reality.
Fourth, the corrosive influence of social media on public debate serves above all to amplify complaint and abuse, and complaint and abuse are the dark heart of populism.
These turbulent currents threaten a kind of permanent crisis in governance across the democratic world.
And our only weapons in response are rational argument and the petty integrity of facts.
This could all get much worse before it gets any better.