Wednesday, December 30, 2015

TheDisastrousGreenTakeoverOfEnvironment

RAY EVANS

Green, Burnt and Red All Over

How is it that that the bush is so mismanaged, that fire-fighting budgets grow ever larger even as bushfires do the same. In 2009, months after the Black Saturday fires, Ray Evans detailed how the practical management of our countryside was captured by the left. His analysis is worth re-visiting

fire bike smallThe takeover by the socialist Left of the environmentalist movement in Australia can be dated from the early seventies, culminating in the 1973 AGM of the Australian Conservation Foundation, an organisation founded by Sir Garfield Barwick and Sir Maurice Mawby, funded in part by the McMahon government, and which had as its aim increasing the public awareness of the importance of environmental matters.
By the late 1960s the communist Left was suffering from defections over the Soviet invasion of Hungary in 1956, but more significantly from the brutal repression of the Dubcek regime in Prague in 1968. The Communist Party of Australia and its fellow-travelling socialists in the ALP were having doctrinal and morale problems. In a brilliant strategic move, it was decided that the environmentalist movement was a new and promising vehicle for obtaining political influence and power.
The American sociologist Robert Nisbet wrote in a review article in the American Spectator in 1983:
As an historian, I am obliged by the record of the Western past to see Environmentalism—of the kind espoused by the [Barry] Commoners and the [Paul] Ehrlichs—as the third great wave of redemptive struggle in Western history; the first being Christianity, the second modern socialism.
The appeal of Environmentalism, in its more extreme manifestations at least, becomes irresistible to that permanent cadre of political and social radicals Western society has nurtured ever since the French Revolution. This cadre has never been primarily interested in the protection of nature,but if such a movement carries with it even the possibility of political and social revolution, it is well that the cadre join it; which, starting with the late 1960s, it did.
So Greenpeace was taken over in Canada, its founder, Patrick Moore, was ousted, and in Australia, the Left, having enrolled into the ACF in considerable numbers, ousted the old guard in October 1973, and installed Geoff Mosley, hitherto a recent employee of the ACF, as its new Director. John Blanche, the former head of the organisation, resigned immediately, as did many members of the board.
An example of the attitude of the new regime to the role it envisaged for the ACF is found in 1983-84 Annual Report, written by Geoff Mosley:
Undoubtedly the main issue to attract the Foundation’s attention was peace and disarmament and the related topic of opposition to uranium mining and export.
The worsening arms situation not only threatens annihilation, but by absorbing resources and creating a feeling of doom is rapidly eroding the possibility of dealing with drastic social problems such as land degradation and deforestation.
It is, indeed, difficult to see the arms race and deterioration of the physical and social environment as being in any way separate matters. Any solution will require a global anti-nuclear movement.
The ACF has adhered to a hard Left position on every environmental issue ever since.
In 1982 the Cain Labor government won office in Victoria. Although Rod McKenzie was appointed Minister for Forests in 1982, Joan Kirner was in charge of the political agenda. Kirner was the leader of the Socialist Left faction in the ALP, in effect a medieval baron not beholden to the Premier for her office. In June 1983 Cain announced the creation of a new mega-department of Conservation, Forests and Lands, which subsumed existing departments of Forestry, Crown Lands and Surveying, the Department of Planning and the Department of Conservation. The Victorian Forests Commission was dissolved and the new department came into being in December 1983.
Joan Kirner was the first minister and early in 1985 she fired Ron Grose, a forester with an internationally distinguished reputation, who had been chief of the Forests Commission. She also fired or retrenched the people who had served in the top three layers of the Forests Commission. She appointed as head of the new department Tony Edison, an unknown figure from the UK, who was outspoken in his hostility to foresters and forestry, and he in turn appointed hardline greens as senior officials in the department. From that day to this the department, now officially the Department of Sustainability and Environment but known throughout rural Victoria as the Department of Scorched Earth, has been completely dysfunctional.
The Victorian Forests Commission had a history going back to its establishment in 1918, and had built up a culture of expertise in forest management which made it respected throughout the international forestry community. Its expertise and knowledge of local terrain and silviculture extended deep into the domain of Victoria’s forests. Some of that expertise and knowledge is still to be found in the people, mostly now retired, who once worked for the Forests Commission. Its dissolution at the hands of Joan Kirner was akin to the dissolution of the monasteries by Henry VIII, but where Henry handed over the vast treasures of the monasteries to his favoured courtiers, Kirner handed over the treasure trove of Victoria’s forests to the Greens.
The cause of the dysfunctionality of the DSE is doctrinal. At the core of Green doctrine is the belief that trees are sacred and that mankind is a pest or a virus on the planet. So the logging and timber industry has been targeted by the Greens for extinction, just as whaling was targeted for extinction in the 1970s. In fact the ban on logging in parts of Western Australia, and the closure of timber communities in those regions, for example, was specifically likened by West Australian Greens to the end of Albany as a whaling town. Trees and whales are either very tall or very large, and both are sacred.
Two characteristic examples of the articulation of Green doctrine, one from 1990 and one from 2007, illustrate this point. Ted Traynor, lecturer in the Department of Education at the University of New South Wales, gave a talk on Robyn Williams’s ABC radio program Ockham’s Razor in May 1990:
For a long time to come, our top national priority in countries like Australiashould be to reduce the GNP as fast as possible, because we are grossly over-developed and over-producing and over-consuming and there’s no possibility of all people ever rising to the per capita levels we now have, let alone those we’re determined to grow to.
Often it is obvious that developments that would do wonders for the GNP should be prohibited, such as devoting local land and water to export crops.
There would be far less trade and transporting of goods than there is now. There would have to be many co-operative arrangements; the sharing of tools, many community workshops, orchards, forests, ponds, gardens, and regular community meetings and working bees.
Applying the concept of appropriate development in the over-developed countries would make it possible for most people to live well on only one day’s work for cash per week, because many of the relatively few things they need would come from their own gardens, from barter, from gifts of surpluses and from the many free sources within the neighbourhood.[emphasis added]
Paul Watson, the anti-whaling activist who has been charged with piracy on the open seas, said in an editorial on May 4, 2007:
We are killing our host the planet Earth.
I was once severely criticized for describing human beings as being the “AIDS of the Earth”. I make no apologies for that statement.
No human community should be larger than 20,000 people and separated from other communities by wilderness areas.
We need vast areas of the planet where humans do not live at all and where other species are free to evolve without human interference. We need to radically and intelligently reduce human populations to fewer than one billion.
Sea transportation should be by sail. The big clippers were the finest ships ever built and sufficient to our needs. Air transportation should   be by solar powered blimps when air transportation is necessary.
Statements of this kind could be multiplied hundreds of times. They are representative of the core Green movement. Although most people who vote for the Green Party in Australia would be horrified if governments enacted legislation to bring about the reduction in population and living standards thought essential by Traynor and Watson, these are the doctrines which illuminate and influence Green decision-making, wherever the Greens have political or administrative power.
Now a department of state which has management responsibilities for forests on Crown land (an area in Victoria comprising one third of the state), but which is staffed at senior levels by officials who believe that trees are sacred, and are there to be worshipped rather than exploited for the use of mankind, cannot manage the forests. Because an explicit avowal of such beliefs would, at this stage of the Green Revolution, be premature, the sacred nature of forests is euphemised by words and phrases such as “old-growth forests”, the incommensurability of “wilderness”, and by appeals to the over-arching importance of biodiversity and the necessity, therefore, of leaving forests untouched and dead trees on the roadside undisturbed. Biodiversity is a magic word which is used to legitimise the expropriation of private property (amongst many other uses).
Green doctrine on trees and forests is pre-Christian and incompatible with Western civilisation. An important example of the clash between the pagan worship of trees, and Christian utilitarianism concerning the use of timber for structures and implements of all kinds, took place in Germany in the early eighth century.
An English boy called Winfrid was born in Devon about 675 AD. He showed great intellectual promise and wished to devote his life to the church. His parents objected but he eventually obtained their permission and was ordained as a priest in about 705. He became a Benedictine monk and eventually received the Pope’s permission to evangelise the German-speaking peoples to the east of the Rhine.
He was later appointed bishop, taking the name of Boniface. In one famous encounter with the environmentalists of his time, and to show the heathens how utterly powerless were the gods in whom they placed their confidence, Boniface felled the oak tree sacred to the thunder-god Thor, at Geismar, near Fritzlar. He had a chapel built out of the wood and dedicated it to the Prince of the Apostles. The local tribesmen were astonished that no thunderbolt from the hand of Thor destroyed the offender, and many were converted. The fall of this oak tree marked the decline of pagan influence in that part of Germany.
Today St Boniface would be prosecuted for cutting down a tree without a permit, although since it was an oak tree he may have escaped the watchful eye of our own Green high-priests who, in a nice blend of paganism and xenophobia, are concerned with worshipping eucalypts and anathematising exotic deciduous trees. This may seem a trivial thing, but it is indicative of the power which the Green movement has seized. It is arguable that environmentalism has become the established religion of the Commonwealth of Australia, in contradiction of Section 116 of the Constitution which prohibits such establishment.
The firestorms of Black Saturday are a stark reminder of the incompatibility of pagan beliefs about trees and the demands of twenty-first-century life. As the Victorian parliament’s report of July 2008 demonstrated, any program of bushfire control in Victoria’s eucalypt forests which has any chance of success must rely upon continual and sustained fuel reduction as the basis of policy. In the absence of more radical changes to property rights in Victorian forests, this requires the end of Green hegemony within a restructured public service charged with responsibility for managing Crown forests.
The most illuminating recent defence of Green doctrines concerning forest management is found in an essay entitled “Thoughts on the Victorian Bushfires”, in February 2009, by Andrew Campbell, who claims to have been a Victorian forester; a bushfire researcher; the founder of the Potter Foundation’s whole-farm planning in early 1980s; one of the initiators of Landcare; CEO of Land & Water Australia until about three years ago; and is now a consultant living in Queanbeyan, close to the corridors of power in Canberra. This essay has not been published but is available on his website and has been widely circulated.
The essential points he makes are as follows:
Claims that more broadscale fuel reduction burning in Victoria’s forests would have prevented these fires … are nonsense … [Extreme weather conditions following] lots of late spring-early summer growth, after a decade of drought, made for an explosive tinderbox …
The crucial point that must be underlined is that under very extreme conditions (Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) above 50—see below), fuel loads are no longer the key driver of fire behaviour, compared with weather (some of which is fire-induced) and topography (especially slope) …
Prof Ross Bradstock … from the University of Wollongong and the Bushfires CRC, has pointed out that the Fire Danger Index (FDI) was over 150 in Melbourne on February 7. The FDI incorporates temperature, wind speed, humidity and a measure of fuel dryness. It was developed in the 1960s and calibrated on a scale from zero (no fire danger) to 100 (“Black Friday” 1939) for both forests and grasslands. Fuel reduction research has mostly involved small-scale experiments at FDIs between 10 and 20. A forest FDI (FFDI) above 50 indicates that, due to fire crowning and spotting behaviour, weather becomes the dominant indicator of fire behaviour, and it becomes impossible to fight a running forest fire front. When eucalypt forests are crowning, fuel reduction at ground level is academic. Recent research suggests that with a drying warming climate we are now seeing unprecedented FDIs, and need to introduce a new fire danger rating above “extreme” called “catastrophic” to more realistically present the   dangers associated with days like 7 February …
The whole planning system should be overhauled, way beyond just building codes and vegetation management. Premier Brumby and his cabinet—and I suspect now Kevin Rudd—appear to understand that business as usual will not do. They also seem to understand the link to climate change in making events such as these (and worse) more likely in future. But they have yet to make the logical jump to the urgency of mitigating climate change, which means setting ambitious targets, and retooling the economy from top to bottom to achieve them. [emphasis added]
I have quoted from this essay at length to illustrate the current state of the Green justification of their stewardship of the forests, and also to illustrate the revolutionary ambitions of the Greens in combining the bushfire tragedies with their faith in anthropogenic global warming, in order to justify “retooling the economy from top to bottom.”
Nevertheless Campbell has made an important point about fires in the crowns of eucalypts. The reason why we have had so many bushfires in south-eastern Australia is because eucalypts, after long periods of hot, dry conditions, become equivalent to large fire bombs, containing highly flammable hydro-carbons which are released into the air above the trees as vapours, where they form a fireball when ignited. When our forests are composed entirely of eucalypts, the outbreak of bushfires cannot be prevented, although their severity can be greatly reduced by ensuring the fuel content of the floor of the forest is as close to zero as possible. We know that the eucalypts were not always dominant in Australia; some time in the past eucalypts were restricted to the outskirts of rainforests and various native beech trees (which can still be found in sheltered gullies) were the dominant species.
It is impossible, therefore, to escape the conclusion that if we are to make Victoria free of bushfires, we need to reduce substantially the density of eucalypts in our forests and replace them with other species. On Black Saturday exotic deciduous trees, poplars, elms, oaks and plane trees were in large measure untouched by the fires, particularly if they were at some distance from eucalyptus trees. The Gould Memorial Drive on the Buxton Road approaching Marysville, two glorious rows of Lombardy poplars, provides such testimony; as does the Fernshaw Park Reserve, a haven of elms, plane trees and oaks, halfway up the Black Spur Road from Healesville.
The argument that Victoria has to replace a major portion of its eucalypt forests with exotic trees such as English oaks, poplars, plane trees, and other non-flammable exotic species will be seen as sacrilege of the most egregious kind by the Greens who have ruled the DSE and other departments since the 1980s. But since it is they who must now give an account of how their stewardship of Victoria’s forests resulted in the deaths of more that 170 people on Black Saturday, and the loss of billions of dollars worth of property, they first have to acknowledge that what has been done since the 1980s has been a terrible mistake. If that does not happen then there has to be a reversal of the Kirner revolution of 1983 and new people, untainted by Green pagan doctrine concerning the sacred nature of indigenous trees, have to be appointed to senior positions. More of the same will not survive a serious political backlash.
The greater part by far of Victoria’s forests are never seen by the public except from the air. Whether they comprise eucalypts or other species is a matter only of symbolic value. From a social point of view, the squeeze that has been placed on the logging and timber industries by the Green bureaucracy—a squeeze designed to kill the industry within a politically acceptable framework and timetable—has significantly reduced the number of people living and working in the bush (people with a knowledge of bushfires and firefighting); has reduced road access into the forests; and has exacerbated greatly the damage done in the recent disaster.
The deliberate and systematic throttling of the timber industry has been manifest in the establishment of the Great Otway National Park and the shutting down of the timber industry in the Otway Ranges; the reduction of timber harvesting in the box-ironbark forests to a minimum level; the ending of timber harvesting in the Wombat Forest; and the establishment of new or expanded national and state parks totalling over 100,000 hectares.
These vast areas of forests become wilderness, symbols of Green religious power, in which man is a hostile and unwelcome intruder. They also become sanctuaries where feral animals and noxious plants of all kinds flourish and can spread into neighbouring farms and properties. Above all they become huge reservoirs of stored energy, awaiting the next dry spell and hot weather before turning into raging infernos.
From an economic point of view the closing down of that substantial portion of the timber industry based on Crown forests has resulted in timber shortages, increasing dependence on imported timber, and above all, the substitution of steel for timber in the domestic building industry. If steel were to replace timber as the consequence of competition between alternative materials on a level playing field, which culminated in a cheaper product of equal or superior quality, that would be one thing. But when an industry is deliberately choked to death by government fiat, that is another.
In order to protect Victoria from a repeat of the tragedy of Black Saturday, the logging industry must be given a new charter which will provide confidence for revival, growth, new investment and the development of new technologies and processes which will restore timber’s competitiveness with steel. Such a charter requires the transformation of the Crown forests, however they are designated, into ninety-nine-year leaseholds which can be auctioned in appropriate sizes together with covenants requiring the replacement of eucalypts with exotic non-flammable trees (excluding pine trees, which burn readily), up to a certain proportion, within a reasonable period.
Once secure property rights were established for the forests, investors and entrepreneurs would not only see opportunities in developing the logging and timber industry but also in investing in eco-tourism and recreation. Above all, these proprietors would have an overwhelming interest in securing their assets from the destruction of bushfires, and in ensuring they were not liable for damages to neighbouring property caused by their own negligence. The government could then withdraw from the business of forest management, confident that the interests of proprietors and the public alike were in alignment.
We know from the Soviet tragedy that communal farming and the absence of property rights in the farming industry produced chronic famine and shortages. The absence of property rights in the Victorian forests sector has produced the same sort of result. It is no coincidence that the radical students of today proclaim themselves as activists in the green-red coalition.
Many of the deaths on Black Saturday were caused by the transformation of roads under firestorm conditions into “channels of death”. Roger Underwood, an experienced forester from Western Australia, came to Victoria after Black Saturday and was taken through many of the regions devastated by fire. He subsequently wrote:
I was shocked to observe kilometres of long-unburnt road reserves running through semi-cleared and agricultural landscapes. These are more like tunnels than roads, with a narrow strip of bitumen winding between overhanging trees and bush right at the road edge which had clearly not been burned for over 20 years and carried a fuel load of about 35 tonnes to the hectare. These roads are potential death traps, not escape routes.
Currently the clearing of fallen logs and other debris from roadsides is prohibited. This prohibition is another example of Green Power in action. People should not only be allowed, but should be encouraged, to obtain firewood from the roadside and to keep the road verges clear of debris.
The capture by the Greens of a number of shire councils and the regulations such councils imposed on new housing certainly aggravated the damage and arguably caused increased loss of life on Black Saturday. This issue has received considerable attention in the media but there has been no comment on how a small group of people, admittedly passionate in the religion which gives meaning and purpose to their lives, can capture a council and impose regulations which are not only dreadful in their consequences but are also regarded as lunatic by most people living in the shire.
Following the changes made to local government by the Kennett government, in which a large number of small shires were amalgamated into fewer, much larger entities, local government became too big to be responsive to local opinion and knowledge, and too small to be taken seriously by most people. This enabled small groups of zealots, through commitment and political skill, to capture these bodies. They had the advantage that a high proportion of Greens are childless (most Greens are against children) and many are well off in secure jobs. They therefore had the time, energy and resources to devote to political activity. The Nillumbik Shire Council on the north-eastern edge of Melbourne is perhaps the best-known example of this phenomenon, but other rural shires on the outskirts of the metropolis have the same problem in varying degrees.
The answer to this serious problem is a return to local government. In other words, shire councils should represent real communities, not conglomerations of towns and hamlets extending over hundreds of square kilometres. If, for example, Marysville had its own shire council, then local government would be representative of Marysville and its immediate surrounding district, and local knowledge of the district would be brought to bear in every discussion on council. The argument that there are economies of scale in local government, and that amalgamations would lead to reduced costs, is belied by the substantial increases in rates that have occurred since the Kennett “reforms”.
The same arguments apply with equal force to Kinglake and Flowerdale, two other towns destroyed on Black Saturday.
It may be said that the Greens are too entrenched both politically and in the bureaucracy for any arguments made here to gain any support. However, the next Victorian government will find, as in 1992, that Victoria is deep in debt and radical measures are necessary to restore the financial viability of the state. Turning the Crown forests into private leaseholds would bring in a very large sum of money, and it would demonstrate to everyone that the new government is prepared to take desperate measures in desperate times and, in particular, is resolved to ensure that bushfires of the kind we have experienced so often in recent years become a thing of the past.
This article is based on the Ray Evans’s submission to the Royal Commission. His request to appear before the commission was declined. Evans passed away in June, 2014. This article is an excerpt from his 2009 essay “The Lessons of Black Saturday

Fire reduction burning

Academia’s Flaming Nincompoops

Bushfires must seem very different from atop the ivory tower. The layman easily grasps that more fuel means bigger fires, and bigger fires inflict greater damage on the biota. To grant-nurtured professors and researchers in step with the Green Establishment, there is no co-relation whatsoever

fire tree IIA unique feature of the bushfire scene in Australia (as compared with other countries I have examined) is the extent of the opposition within Australian universities to fuel reduction burning in Australian forests. This oppposition is a source of discontent among firefighters, foresters, bushfire scientists and land managers. They find themselves assailed by self-confident academics who publish their thoughts on internet sites like “The Conversation”, invariably promoting bushfire policies that are doomed to fail, and discounting policies that are known to succeed. It is not just that the hard-won practical experience of bushfire practitioners in the field is rejected. The real tragedy is that opposition to burning:
  • undermines the work of the men and women trying to minimise bushfire damage to Australian communities and forests;
  • confuses the public who can’t work out who to believe; and
  • leads directly to more and worse bushfire disasters.
It almost seems as if there are two parallel worlds.
In the first world, typified by  the Fenner School at the ANU, the Centre for Risk Management at the University of Wollongong and the School of Environment and Conservation at Murdoch University, bushfire ‘research’ is conducted by computer simulation, or in poorly designed short-term experiments on a single species. Occasionally a selective literature review also masquerades as “research”.
In the virtual world of simulation, the harsh realities of real bushfires and the lessons from bushfire history count for nothing. The firmly-held belief of those who oppose fuel reduction is that (i) it destroys biodiversity and (ii) it has little or no value in bushfire control. The modus operandi of the adacemics is to design models that invariably prove both of their beliefs to hold true.
Land managers, fire scientists and firefighters occupy a parallel world, the real world. In it, they study, light prescribed fires and fight bushfires. Their views are continually being tested by events in the bush during real fire events. They respect historical scholarship, personal experience, field observations, empirical measurement of fire behaviour and impacts, and the corporate knowledge passed down from one generation to the next. Computer models are used, for example in forecasting the weather and in planning a prescribed burn or a firefighting operation, but not for ‘research’ that involves contrived inputs aimed at proving a predetermined positon. The firmly-held belief in the real world is that (1) the Australian biota is superbly well-adapted to frequent, mild fire; (2) if fuels are allowed to accumulate, the inevitable result is massive and destructive bushfires; and (3) that the cheapest and most ecologically-friendly way of preventing massive and destructive bushfires is to immunise the bush with low-intensity fire in conditions of your own choosing well before a potentially destructive bushfire starts.

Geoff Walker: An Old Firefighter’s Sorry Saga

Those who occupy the real world have seen no evidence that the biodiversity crumbles (as foretold in the computer models of academia) under a program of relatively frequent, mild-intensity prescribed burning.  Indeed, the reverse is the case: Australian forest ecosystems are seen to benefit from frequent mild fire. Bushland regularly burned by mild intensity fire is healthy, beautiful and biologically diverse. This compares with the devastating impact of landscape-level crown fires that leave behind a  smoking ruin in which the biodiversity has been drastically reduced if not completely eliminated.
Real-world bushfire managers are well-aware of the lessons of history, for example the scholarship by Bill Gammage, Sylvia Hallam and others on burning over millennia by Aborigines[i], to which Australian ecosystems were adapted or else they would not be here. And they accept the validity of the work of bushfire scientists, such as those described by Adams and Attiwill[ii], coupling the science to the accumulated thousands of years of hard-won experience and wisdom by land managers and firefighters.
An example of the sort of thing that emanates from academia is an article by University of Wollongong academic Owen Price[iii]. Price asserts that the secret to successful bushfire protection in Australia is simply for land owners to clean up around their houses. Beyond the backyard, the bush can be left to do its own thing. To justify this view he states:  “…most planned burning patches never encounter a bushfire during their effective lifetime [and] in any case, bushfires can burn even through one-year-old patches”This is equivalent to saying that there is no need for hospitals because most people are not sick.
I took exception to Price’s proposals for bushfire management and wrote to him about his article. My experience is that reducing fuels only in a narrow strip around the asset (the so-called “Colgate Ring of Confidence” approach) always fails when confronted by an incoming crown fire. The fire simply goes over the fuel-reduced strip or around it. The challenge is not to design a system to protect houses from low intensity fires burning under mild weather conditons. My Aunt Dolly can put out this sort of fire with her garden hose. The real job is to protect assets from crown fires, burning on hot days under high winds, and threatening both the built and bushland assets. This challenge can only be met by pre-empting crown fires through mosaic broadscale fuel reduction right across the landscape.
As for Price’s throw-away line about fires burning even in one-year old fuels, I differ from Professor Price in that I have actually faced this situation in the field. On both occasions I observed a raging crown fire run into a patch of one-year old fuel and watched as the fire dropped to the ground, allowing firefighters to walk around and kick it in with their boots. Needless to say, my experience cut no ice with Professor Price.
Anti-burning academics always reject this sort of experience. It is described as an “anecdote”, the implication being that it is made-up, a bush yarn, or is somehow untrustworthy, especially compared with the glossy output from a computer model. Price has recently published yet another paper which says exactly the same thing as the first[iv], indicating that he is incapable of learning from the experience of others.
I would have thought Price’s statement untoppable in the Idiotic Bushfire Statement Olympics, but Murdoch University academics Neal Enright and Joseph Fontaine have taken out the Gold Medal. In a paper published in an international journal[v] they unequivocally assert that “there is no evidence that fuel reduction burning has any benefit in wildfire control”.  Meanwhile, their colleagues at the University of Wollongong, achieving the Silver Medal, write (of a proposal for more fuel reduction burning in the USA): “However, [the prediction] that the extent and severity of wildfires can be substantially reduced by introducing managed fires is not well supported by the evidence.”
No evidence! Not supported! The observations of firefighters, the results of long-term research studies such as Project Vesta, the scholarship of Adams and Attiwill and the experiences of generations of foresters are contemptuously cast out the window. As is so often the case when academics like Enright and Fontaine discuss fire in the Australian bush, their belief in their intellectual superiority allows them effortlessly to trump real-world experience with theoretical ideology. This elitism would be laughable if it was not so dangerous.
As an alternative to the Enright and Fontaine nonsense, consider this little memoir sent to me by Russ Ritchie, a retired Victorian forester:
While stationed in Trentham Forest District in 1963, I carried out a MacArthur Grid type fuel reduction burn of approx 500 acres along Domino Rd. This road ran parallel with the Dalesford/Trentham railway line and was approx 1 km. to the south of the railway line.
The burning operation extended north from Domino Rd until it reached the forested Private Property/State Forest boundary, which in turn was  about mid- way to the railway line.  From this point to the railway line, the Private Property was composed of a Messmate /Gum forest type (similar to the State Forest itself) with the balance of the area  parallel to the railway easement being very dry grass.  For whatever reason, this section of railway line had been responsible for several fires in the past, hence my decision to carry out the fuel reduction burn, in anticipation of a fire problem sometime in the future.
Some months later, early in 1964, on a Total Fire Ban Day with a severe northerly wind, the Trentham fire tower on Blue Mountain reported a fire a little west of Trentham adjacent to the railway line.  A fire crew was despatched from Trentham. They found a crown fire heading south in the Private Property forest.  There was nothing that the crew could do to tackle this fire as it was a full crown fire.  However, as soon as the head of the fire reached the fuel reduced area north of Domino Rd. it immediately dropped to a ground fire. This the crew was easily able to control with hand tools. The fire was  completely contained within the fuel reduction burn I had conducted a few months previously[vi]
Why are voices like this never heard, but the ramblings of the half-baked are published in international journals, and believed by uncritical bureaucrats and the uniformed bushfire generals?
But without doubt the nadir in this genre is a paper by Dr Donald Driscoll of the ANU’s Fenner School and published in the journal Conservation Letters[vii]. The paper (which, astoundingly, has 15 co-authors!) is profoundly anti-fuel reduction burning. The grounds for this stance is that burning is deleterious to biodiversity. The authors ‘prove’ this assertion using a made-up algebraic formula and a statistical approach called ‘decision theory’. Data from the field involving actual fire regimes and measured impacts on biodiversity do not come into it at all.
The unreality of the whole exercise is exposed by a review of the inputs to Driscoll’s algebraic model. This reveals that the ‘deleterious’ impacts of burning on biodiversity are based on the assumption that prescribed fire will totally consume every element of the biota, re-setting the entire ecosystem back to age zero. However, mild fires in light fuels do not kill mature woody plants and do not impinge on physical refugia, where fire sensitive plants and animals lived for the forty thousand years during which Aboriginal people constantly burned the bush.
Typically Driscoll et al cite none of the literature from Western Australia (for example, Abbott and Burrows[viii]) have shown, based not on a mathematical equation but on actual measured post-fire outcomes, that prescribed burning has had no deleterious impact on biodiversity. Consequently the paper does not come across as a reasoned argument, but as a one-sided polemic, the sort of work more likely to flow from the pen of an environmental activist than that of a scientist. The philosopher Robert Thouless would be turning in his grave.[ix]
There is, of course, nothing wrong with burning at short intervals of less than five or six years in most Australian eucalypt forests. In fact, many contemporary bushfire scientists, and ‘firestick ecologists’ like Vic Jurskis[x], have demonstrated that this is the best way of optimising biodiversity and forest health while at the same time minimising ‘megafires’ and fire suppression costs. That prescribed burning is not done more frequently (or not done at all) in most Australian forests these days is almost entirely due to the malevolent influence of academics promoting the idea that it is destroying biodiversity, apart from having no practical value.
I have to admit I was amused by one aspect of the paper by Driscoll et al. The authors do not totally condemn fuel reduction burning. Moving effortlessly from a single algebraic equation to a prescription for whole-of-forest management, they come up with a solution to the bushfire problem right across the forests of Australia. This is to install a system of ‘strategic’ buffer strips 150 metres in width winding through the forest. In these strips, which they refer to as ‘sacrificial’ areas, fuel reduction burning can be done. They do not explain how these buffers are to be burned, as they will be up against heavy fuels on both sides and have a very high perimeter/area ratio, nor where the resources would come from to do the work, which would be labour-intensive and highly risky. Nor do they consider the cost of installing and maintaining the hundreds of thousands of kilometers of trafficable firebreaks along both edges of the fuel-reduced strips throughout the nation’s forests, including those in mountainous regions.
Had Driscoll et al looked to the lessons of history, they would have discovered that a similar approach was adopted in the jarrah forest in the 1920s, based on a strategy developed in India in the 1860s[xi]. It was abandoned in both India (in 1926) and WA (in 1954) when it became blindingly obvious that it was dangerous, expensive, and useless as a measure for stopping high-intensity fires. No fire on a hot, windy day in mid-summer had any difficulty in spotting over a 150-metre wide strip and then tearing the guts out of the long-unburnt forest beyond. It is not the fuel reduced strips which are sacrificed under this regime, but the forest as a whole.
I suppose I should not have been surprised about the amateurishness of this paper. ANU “scientist” Donald Driscoll is well known in fire circles in Western Australia, where I reside. Here his ecological research is often cited as an example of what not to do. He was involved in a celebrated case when he published a paper in the Australian Journal of Ecology[xii] which purported to demonstrate that fuel reduction burning would lead to the extinction of a species of frog (Geocrinia lutea) that lives in swamps in the karri forest. To reach this conclusion, Driscoll conducted a single, brief experiment in which a frog-bearing swamp was burned. Immediately after the burn he counted residual frogs and compared the numbers in the burned area with those in “unburnt control areas” nearby.  Fewer frogs were found in the burned area than in the areas that had not been burned. From this data he went on to assert that future fuel reduction burning would cause G. lutea to become extinct. Extrapolating from frogs, he concluded that the entire Western Australian forest biota would soon become extinct, thanks to the burning program.
The Geocrinia study was celebrated because Driscoll arranged for the Department of Conservation and Land Management (CALM) to do the work for him, and thus CALM officers were well aware of his experimental design and methodology. Driscoll wrote a letter to CALM and requested that the burn be “as hot as possible”, and asked that he be advised as soon as the burn was completed  so that he “could come down and count the fried frogs”. When I last heard of it, this letter still has a revered spot in departmental correspondence files.
I was not an officer of CALM in 1997, but I knew about the Driscoll incident because I had maintained my interest in fire and had a good relationship with CALM field staff.  They let me know about the Driscoll research, and eventually I was sent a copy of his paper. It was a classic in the genre of what I would describe as “junk science”.  For example, he did not mention that the experimental fire was of wildfire intensity, inferring that it was a prescribed burn. Moreover, his impact assessment was confined to a period of two years after the fire, whereas the normal time between burns in the karri forest in 1997 was about 8 years. Experienced fire ecologists are cautious about drawing conclusions on fire impacts based on the the immediate effects of a single fire, because impacts vary according to fire intensity, season and to the prior history of fires, as do changes with time after each fire.
Worse still, the “long-unburnt” control sites against which the impacts of the Driscoll burn were assessed, were not long-unburnt at all. Each had a history of being burnt at intervals of less than 10 years, going back over 30 years. One  “control” site had experienced six fires in the 30 year period before nomination by Driscoll as an unburnt control. This information was available from CALM records and from local CALM staff, but was not reported. In other words, what the data from the “control” sites demonstrated was not the benefit to frogs of absence of fire, but the capacity of the frogs to survive fire. The real conclusion that emerged from Driscoll’s experiment was that a well-planned program of mild fuel reduction burning (in spring) will protect the swamps (and their frogs), whilst high-intensity summer wildfires will burn  them.
I suppose none of this would matter, but for the fact that the G. lutea study quickly became one of the first papers quoted as “proof” of the deleterious impacts of fuel reduction burning on biodiversity, and it still crops up in pseudoscientific literature today.
Important questions are raised by this discussion. For example,
1/         First, how does junk science like this get published? Both the Geocrinia and the Conservation Letters papers were refereed, and you would have thought that the most superficial examination would have rung alarm bells with the referees and journal editors. But, of course, this depends upon who the editors and referees are.  I corresponded with the editor of the paper in Conservation Letters. He was a mathematician from Scandinavia, who told me he knew nothing about bushfires or, for that matter, Australian forest ecosytems. I also corresponded with the editor ofConservation Letters  (Professor Hugh Possingham, an academic from Queensland University), but he turned out to be one of the manifold co-authors of the Driscoll paper. The paper’s referees (as is usually the case) maintained a careful anonymity, but it is hard not to think that they had been selected by Possingham in his role and both editor of the journal and author of the paper.
2/         Second, how is this sort of research funded, and to what purpose? The ANU has admitted that it has received funding from the Wilderness Society, an organisation of environmental activists opposed to responsible bushfire management. For me this rings an alarm bell the size of Big Ben. However, I suspect this was an aberration; most academics are funded out of the public purse. This is the closed world of the “government research grant” from which all outsiders and independent thinkers are ruthlessly excluded.
My greatest concern, however, is that undergraduates in Australian universities are being subjected to green propaganda against burning. I have reviewed the fire management syllabus taught at ANU and found that it does not promote fuel reduction burning as a means of reducing the threat of large, high intensity wildfires. Indeed, the Professor of Forestry at ANU, Peter Kanowski, remarked at a conference of Australian and New Zealand Institute of Foresters that “the jury was still out” on the benefits of prescribed burning. He had previously collaborated in the Council of Australian Governments Inquiry, whose chairman, Professor Robert Whelan of Wollongong University actually published a paper in Nature urging Australian land managers not to “fight fire with fire”. The COAG report under Whelan’s leadership not surprisingly shifted the focus of bushfire management from fire prevention and damage mitigation to community education and evacuation. This was after the Nairn Inquiry found that the 2003 megafires had “left a nation charred to its physical and spiritual core” and were a consequence of “grossly inadequate hazard reduction burning on public lands for far too long”.
I would not like it thought that I am an all-embracing critic of academia. I know and admire many good scientists in universities, people like Professors Mark Adams of Sydney University, and Peter Attiwill of Melbourne University. My beef is with the ideologists, the “green academics” whose aim, it seems to me, is not to help Australian firefighters and forest managers, but to make their jobs and their lives more difficult.
Most amazing to me is their readiness to sacrifice the forest beyond the Ring of Confidence to high intensity fire. This abandonment of forest ecosystems is especially ironic as it comes from people and organisations who regard themselves as “conservationists”.
I have come to despair over the bushfire situation in Australia. It has gone from bad to worse over the last 25 years, with our bushfire authorities increasingly opting to reject “the Australian Approach” (built upon pre-emptive fuel reduction) in favour of “the American Approach” (using expensive technology to fight fires after they start). In adopting this futile approach, bushfire authorites have aligned themselves with the green academics who oppose fuel reduction. The result is more and worse bushfire damage to the detriment of Australians and our environment, including its biodiversity.
Beyond despair, I note that after each successive bushfire disaster the green academics and bushfire authorities are rewarded for their failures with increased funding for research and for suppression, at the expense of sensible land management with a focus on preparedness and damage mitigation. It is a situation out of a fantasy world like that of Alice in Wonderland.

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Myth Of Man Caused Global Warming

The Most Comprehensive Assault On Global Warming ever

 It made sense.  Knowing that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and that our industrialized world is adding a large amount of it to the atmosphere on a yearly basis, I accepted the premise that this would cause global temperatures to rise.  But one day about 7 years ago, I looked at the ubiquitous graph showing the “global” temperature of the last 150 years and noticed something odd.  It was subtle, and as I found out later, disguised so that it would be overlooked.  There appeared to be a period of about 40 years between 1940 and 1980 where the global temperatures actually declined a bit.  As a data analysis expert, I could not ignore that subtle hint and began to look into it a little more.  Forty years is a long time, and while carbon dioxide concentrations were increasing exponentially over the same period, I could not overlook that this showed an unexpected shift in the correlation between global temperatures and CO2concentrations. Thus I began to look into it a little further and here are some of the results 7 years later.

Before we begin, let’s establish what we know to be correct.  The global average temperature has increased since the 1980’s.  Since the 1980’s glaciers around the world are receding and the ice cap of the Arctic Ocean has lost ice since the 1980’s, especially during the summer months.  The average global temperature for the last 10 years is approximately 0.35 degrees centigrade higher than it was during the 1980’s. The global warming community has exploited these facts to “prove” that human activity (aka burning of fossil fuels) is the cause of these increasing temperatures.  But no direct scientific proof or data has been shown that link the current observations to human activity.  The link is assumed to be simply a fact, with no need to investigate or discuss any scientific data.

Here are 10 of the many scientific problems with the assumption human activity is causing “global warming” or “climate change”:
1. Temperature records from around the world do not support the assumption that today’s temperatures are unusual.
The all-time high temperature record for the world was set in 1913, while the all-time cold temperature record was set in 1983.  By continent, all but one set their all-time high temperature record more recently than their all-time cold temperature records.  In the United States, which has more weather stations than any other location in the world, more cold temperature records by state were set more recently than hot temperature records.  When the temperature records for each state were considered for each month of the year, a total of 600 data points (50 states x 12 months), again cold temperature records were set in far greater numbers more recently and hot temperature records were set longer ago.  This is directly contradictory to what would be expected if global warming were real.
2. Satellite temperature data does not support the assumption that temperatures are rising rapidly:
Starting at the end of 1978, satellites began to collect temperature data from around the globe.  For the next 20 years, until 1998, the global average temperature remained unchanged in direct contradiction to the earth-bound weather station data, which indicated “unprecedented” temperature increases.  In 1998 there was a strong El Nino year with high temperatures, which returned to pre-1998 levels until 2001.  In 2001 there was a sudden jump in the global temperature of about 0.3 degrees centigrade which then remained at about that level for the next 14 years, with a very slight overall decrease in the global temperatures during that time.
3. Current temperatures are always compared to the temperatures of the 1980’s, but for many parts of the world the 1980’s was the coldest decade of the last 100+ years:
If the current temperatures are compared to those of the 1930’s one would find nothing remarkable.  For many places around the world, the 1930’s were the warmest decade of the last 100 years, including those found in Greenland.  Comparing today’s temperatures to the 1980’s is like comparing our summer temperatures to those in April, rather than those of last summer.  It is obvious why the global warming community does this, and very misleading (or deceiving).
4. The world experienced a significant cooling trend between 1940 and 1980:
Many places around the world experienced a quite significant and persistent cooling trend to the point where scientists began to wonder if the world was beginning to slide into a new ice age period.  For example, Greenland experienced some of the coldest years in 120 years during the 1980’s, as was the case in many other places around the world.  During that same 40-year period, the CO2 levels around the world increased by 17%, which is a very significant increase.  If global temperatures decreased by such a significant amount over 40 years while atmospheric CO2increased by such a large amount we can only reach two conclusions: 1. There must be a weak correlation, at best, between atmospheric CO2 and global temperatures, 2. There must be stronger factors driving climate and temperature than atmospheric CO2
5. Urban heat island effect skews the temperature data of a significant number of weather stations: 
It has been shown that nighttime temperatures recorded by many weather stations have been artificially raised by the expulsion of radiant heat collected and stored during the daytime by concrete and brick structures such as houses, buildings, roads, and also cars.  Since land area of cities and large towns containing these weather stations only make up a very small fraction of the total land area, this influence on global average temperature data is significant.  Since the daytime and nighttime temperatures are combined to form an average, these artificially-raised nighttime temperatures skew the average data.  When one only looks at daytime temperatures only from larger urban areas, the “drastic global warming” is no longer visible.  (This can also be seen when looking at nearby rural area weather station data, which is more indicative of the true climate of that area).
6. There is a natural inverse relationship between global temperatures and atmospheric CO2levels:
Contrary to what would be assumed when listening to global warming banter or while watching An Inconvenient Truth, higher temperatures increase atmospheric CO2 levels and lower temperatures decrease atmospheric CO2 levels, not the other way around.  Any college freshman chemistry student knows that the solubility of CO2 decreases with increasing temperatures and thus Earth’s oceans will release large amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere when the water is warmer and will absorb more CO2 when the water is colder.  That is why the CO2 level during the ice ages was so much lower than the levels today.  That doesn’t take away the fact that we are artificially raising the atmospheric CO2 levels, but just because we do, that doesn’t mean that this will cause temperatures to increase in any significant way.  The 40-year cooling period between 1940 and 1980 appear to support that premise.  What we can conclude is that the ice ages were not caused by changes in the atmospheric CO2 levels and that other stronger factors were involved with these very large climate changes.
7. The CO2 cannot, from a scientific perspective, be the cause of significant global temperature changes:
The CO2 molecule is a linear molecule and thus only has limited natural vibrational frequencies, which in turn give this molecule only limited capability of absorbing radiation that is radiated from the Earth’s surface.  The three main wavelengths that can be absorbed by CO2 are 4.26 micrometers, 7.2 micrometers, and 15.0 micrometers.  Of those 3, only the 15-micrometer is significant because it falls right in range of the infrared frequencies emitted by Earth.  However, the H2O molecule which is much more prevalent in the Earth’s atmosphere, and which is a bend molecule, thus having many more vibrational modes, absorbs many more frequencies emitted by the Earth, including to some extent the radiation absorbed by CO2.  It turns out that between water vapor and CO2, nearly all of the radiation that can be absorbed by CO2 is already being absorbed. Thus increasing the CO2 levels should have very minimal impact on the atmosphere’s ability to retain heat radiated from the Earth.  That explains why there appears to be a very weak correlation at best between CO2 levels and global temperatures and why after the CO2 levels have increased by 40% since the beginning of the industrial revolution the global average temperature has increased only 0.8 degrees centigrade, even if we want to contribute all of that increase to atmospheric CO2 increases and none of it to natural causes.
8. There have been many periods during our recent history that a warmer climate was prevalent long before the industrial revolution:
Even in the 1990 IPCC report a chart appeared that showed the medieval warm period as having had warmer temperatures than those currently being experienced.  But it is hard to convince people about global warming with that information, so five years later a new graph was presented, now known as the famous hockey stick graph, which did away with the medieval warm period.  Yet the evidence is overwhelming at so many levels that warmer periods existed on Earth during the medieval warm period as well as during Roman Times and other time periods during the last 10,000 years.  There is plenty of evidence found in the Dutch archives that shows that over the centuries, parts of the Netherlands disappeared beneath the water during these warm periods, only to appear again when the climate turned colder.  The famous Belgian city of Brugge, once known as “Venice of the North,” was a sea port during the warm period that set Europe free from the dark ages (when temperatures were much colder), but when temperatures began to drop with the onset of the little ice age, the ocean receded and now Brugge is ten miles away from the coastline.  Consequently, during the medieval warm period the Vikings settled in Iceland and Greenland and even along the coast of Canada, where they enjoyed the warmer temperatures, until the climate turned cold again, after which they perished from Greenland and Iceland became ice-locked again during the bitter cold winters.  The camps promoting global warming have been systematically erasing mention of these events in order to bolster the notion that today’s climate is unusual compared to our recent history.
9. Glaciers have been melting for more than 150 years
The notion of melting glaciers as prove positive that global warming is real has no real scientific basis.  Glaciers have been melting for over 150 years.  It is no secret that glaciers advanced to unprecedented levels in recent human history during the period known as the Little Ice Age.  Many villages in the French, Swiss, and Italian Alps saw their homes threatened and fields destroyed by these large ice masses.  Pleas went out to local bishops and even the Pope in Rome to come and pray in front of these glaciers in the hope of stopping their unrelenting advance.  Around 1850, the climate returned to more “normal” temperatures and the glaciers began to recede.  But then between 1940 and 1980, as the temperatures declined again, most of the glaciers halted their retreat and began to expand again, until warmer weather at the end of the last century caused them to continue the retreat they started 150 years earlier.  Furthermore, we now know that many of the glaciers around the world did not exist 4000 to 6000 years ago.  As a case in point, there is a glacier to the far north of Greenland above the large ice sheet covering most of the island called the Hans Tausen Glacier.  It is 50 miles long ,30 miles wide and up to 1000 feet thick.  A Scandinavian research team bored ice cores all the way to the bottom and discovered that 4000 years ago this glacier did not exist.  It was so warm 4000 years ago that many of the glaciers around the world didn’t exist but have returned because of the onset of colder weather.  Today’s temperatures are much lower than those that were predominant during the Holocene era as substantiated by studying the many cores that were dug from Greenland’s ice sheet.
10. “Data adjustment” is used to continue the perception of global warming:
For the first several years of my research I relied on the climate data banks of NASA and GISS, two of the most prestigious scientific bodies of our country.  After years of painstaking gathering of data, and relentless graphing of that data, I discovered that I was not looking at the originally gathered data, but data that had been “adjusted” for what was deemed “scientific reasons.”  Unadjusted data is simply not available from these data banks. Fortunately I was able to find the original weather station data from over 7000 weather stations from around the world in the KNMI database.  (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute).  There I was able to review both the adjusted and unadjusted data as well as the breakout of the daytime and nighttime data.  The results were astounding.  I found that data from many stations around the world had been systematically “adjusted” to make it seem that global warming was happening when, in fact, for many places around the world the opposite was true.  Following will be a few of the myriad of examples of this data adjustment.  When I present my material during presentations at local colleges, these are the charts that have some of the greatest impact in affecting the opinion of the students, especially when they realize that there is a concerted effort to misrepresent what is actually happening.  Another amazing result was that when only graphing the daily highs from around the country, a very different picture arises from the historical temperature data.
There are many more specific areas that I have researched and for which I have compiled data and presentation material, equally compelling regarding at exposing the fallacies of global warming.  A new twist has swept the global warming movement lately, especially since they had to admit that their own data showed that there was a “hiatus” on the warming, as illustrated in the 2014 IPCC report; their data showed an actual cooling over the last 10 years.  The new term: “climate change” is now taking over, such that unusual events of any kind, like the record snowfall in Boston, can be blamed on the burning of fossil fuels without offering any concrete scientific data as to how one could cause the other.
Mike van Biezen is adjunct professor at Compton College, Santa Monica College, El Camino College, and Loyola Marymount University teaching Physics, Mathematics, Astronomy, and Earth Science.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Peaceful Islam?

The Vast Majority Myth


We often hear it said that the vast majority of Muslims are peaceful and reject violence. That proposition is worth examining because if it’s not true there is cause to worry. Of course, you should be worried already. Even if only a small percentage of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims are prepared to use violence, that still works out to a large number. However, if the vast-majority thesis doesn’t hold up, you might want to order a Kevlar vest from Amazon, or, if you’re the accommodating type, you could start practicing the Shahada—the Islamic declaration of faith.
There is a good deal of polling data to suggest that the vast majority of Muslims are not just your standard-issue vast majority. For example, Pew polls of public opinion in Pakistan and Egypt show that the vast majority (about 82 percent) favor stoning for adultery, amputation for theft, and death for apostates. So, even if a majority in these countries are not personally inclined to violence, they have no problem with the violent application of sharia law.
But rather than rely on polling data, let’s look at some other ways of assessing the “vast majority” proposition. For some perspective, here are some other “vast majority” propositions that just popped into my head:
Proposition 1. The vast majority of people are peaceful until they’re not.
Proposition 2. The vast majority of people go with the flow.
Proposition 3. The majority of people in any society are women and children.
With the exception of the third proposition, there is no empirical evidence for these propositions, but they seem just as reasonable as the proposition that the vast majority of Muslims are peaceful—a supposition which also has no empirical support. However, Proposition 3 does lend credence to the “vast majority of Muslims” thesis since women and children are, for various reasons, less inclined to violence than adult males. It would therefore be reasonable to say of any society that at least a majority are peaceful.
But people who are peaceful today will not necessarily be peaceful tomorrow. It’s probably safe to say that the vast majority of Hutus were behaving peacefully before the Rwanda genocide of 1994 … and then they stopped behaving peacefully. Using clubs, machetes, and, occasionally, guns, the Hutu managed to kill about 800,000 Tutsi in the space of one hundred days. It’s likely that the vast majority did not take part in the killings, but, by all accounts, a sizeable number did, and an even greater number were complicit. According to reports, most of the Tutsi victims who lived in rural villages were murdered by their neighbors.
So, in line with Proposition 1, the majority of the Hutu were peaceful until they were not. And, in line with Proposition 2, the majority of the Hutu went with the flow—the flow, in this case, being in the direction of mayhem. It should be noted, however, that there were powerful incentives to go with the flow. Moderate Hutus who declined to join in the killing were often killed by their fellow Hutus as a warning to others.
Although women took part in the slaughter, Proposition 3 would suggest that the majority of them did not. And if you combine the women with the children, the elderly, and the moderates, it is reasonable to assume that the majority of Hutu did not participate in the carnage. That, however, would have been small comfort to the Tutsi. The more you think about it, the less comforting it is to know that the vast majority of any population won’t take up arms against you.
History is full of examples of peoples and nations who were peaceful and then were not. Prior to World War I, the vast majority of Europeans were behaving peacefully. Then came 1914, and the European nations went to war with each other. The majority, of course, remained at home and were never involved in battle, but it seems safe to say that most of them fully backed their own side in the conflict and welcomed news of enemy casualties.
Given the right circumstances, the majority of almost any population will willingly put itself on a war footing and turn their homeland into a home front. The questions is, is there something about Islamic cultures that make them more susceptible to warlike attitudes more of the time?
Before attempting an answer, let’s briefly consider another historical example—the Spartans. Were the vast majority of Spartans peaceful? In the sense that the great majority, including women, children, and the elderly were not at war all the time, yes. Still, we would be mistaken to call them a peaceful people. Sparta was a warrior culture, and it cultivated a warrior mentality in its citizens.
The Spartans were a unique case, but in so far as Islam has a tendency, it tends in the direction of Sparta rather than, say, in the direction of Sweden—a land which was once host to a warrior culture of its own. But the Vikings are long gone, and their peaceful descendants look like they will be the first European nation to fall to Islam—a culture which has been more or less at war with the rest of the world since its inception.
Why is the sharia penalty for apostasy death? Because Islam understands itself to be an army. And the penalty for deserting an army in wartime is death. But for Islam, all times are wartimes. The basic division in the Islamic faith is between the House of Islam and the House of War. The essential mission given to Muslims is to bring the House of War (all non-Islamic nations) under the control of the House of Islam.
Like the Spartans, the first Muslims were warriors. Their leader was both a prophet and a warlord. Since Muslims are still expected to model their behavior on Muhammad, it’s not surprising that Muslim cultures will be more prone to violence than, say, cultures that take Jesus or Buddha as their inspiration. Our own culture is completely sold on the importance of having role models to emulate, but hasn’t yet grasped the consequences that follow when 1.6 billion people take Muhammad as their primary role model. Indeed, one of the chief appeals of ISIS and company is their promise to return Islam to those glorious days when Muhammad spread the faith by force.
It may well be that a great many Muslims today just want to be left alone to go about their business. But one of the built-in features of Islam is that, if you’re a Muslim, it won’t leave you alone. It wants to force you to be good. However, the only way to know if you’re good is if you conform to sharia. Thus, where Islam is practiced in its purest form, the virtue police patrol the streets, and everyone understands that if they convert to another religion they can be executed for apostasy—that is to say, desertion.
This is where the second proposition comes in: the vast majority of people go with the flow. The flow of Islam today has returned to its historical channel. It flows in the direction of militancy. Many of the secular governments in the Muslim world have been overthrown, or are in danger of falling to militant theocrats. The caliphate has been re-established in the form of the Islamic State, and the combined might of Russia and the Western powers has been unable to defeat it. Moreover, the seeming impotence of the West is matched by its decadence, and, according to your local imam, the two go together. The current parlous state of the West is just the sort of punishment that Allah visits on those who ignore his laws.
Imagine that you’re one of those moderately disposed Muslims who just wants to go about his own business. You look around and see that all the predictions of the more militant mullahs and imams are coming true. You want to be left alone, but you also want to be a good Muslim. And more and more it seems that being a good Muslim is what the militants say it is. After all, they can buttress their case with dozens of passages from Islamic scripture. And even if you’re not inwardly persuaded, there are still those outside pressures to be considered. Just as the extremist Hutu killed off the moderate Hutu, so also, extremist Muslims have a habit of murdering moderate Muslims who won’t go along with the program. After a while, the radical position won’t seem so radical. In fact, it will start to make sense.
Such a change of heart is not purely a matter of cowardice. No one likes to think of himself as a coward, and so we have ways of convincing ourselves that we are acting out of good, even virtuous motives, rather than cowardly ones. Thus, a moderate Muslim who is moving in a radical direction may persuade himself that it is pleasing to Allah for him to discriminate against non-Muslims. Eventually, he may convince himself that he has a duty to Allah to kill infidels. This shouldn’t be too hard to understand, because we in the West have ways of persuading ourselves that our continual attempts to cater to Muslim sensibilities is due to our tolerance and open-mindedness, rather than to fear.
Now that the Islamic State has established a caliphate, all the arguments for the more militant form of Islam have been strengthened. Nothing succeeds like success, and the many successes of ISIS seem to prove that Allah’s power is behind them. Fr. James Schall, S.J., puts it this way:
Briefly, the assigned mission of Islam is to conquer the world for Allah. Submission to Allah is the highest human good. Any means to carry it out is good if it is successful. Carrying out this mission, in this view, is a Muslim’s vocation. With the re-establishment of the caliphate, this mission can now recommence.
In short, the rebirth of the caliphate may be the signal that obedient and orthodox Muslims have been waiting for.
The vast majority of people go with the flow. Or, to change the metaphor, they wait to see which way the wind is blowing. In Islam, the wind is blowing once again in a radical direction. As we know from history, a relatively small number of radicals can pull the majority along with them. The problem is compounded in Islam because, judging by the numerous terrorist attacks in every part of the globe, we may no longer be facing a relatively small number of radicals. It is also likely that the violent radicals now have the sympathy of far more Muslims than we in the West will admit. Fr. Schall again:
Many Muslim countries are “peaceful” only in the sense that their governments, usually military dictatorships, keep down that radicalism that would overthrow them and is overthrowing them in many places. Muslim masses wait to see who is winning. They know even within Islam that they cannot afford to be on the losing side.
It is often argued that if Western societies take a hard line toward Islamic aggression, both military and cultural, it will have the effect of driving the moderates into the radical camp. So we yield to demands for burqas in public, censor the “Islamophobes” in our midst, and avoid using “offensive” terms such as “radical Islam.” But the majority of Muslims aren’t waiting to see which side is the most tolerant or which side takes in the most refugees; they are waiting to see which side is winning. As long as the West continues on its current course of accommodation and appeasement, the moderates will continue by some strange alchemy to morph into radicals.
The other day, the Daily Mail carried a photo of a smiling young man in Muslim garb holding a large sign that read “I am Muslim … do you trust me enough for a hug?” If that were the end of the story, we could all reassure ourselves that he had thoroughly grasped the cherished Western concept “arms are for hugging.” But shortly afterward, Craig Wallace, aka Muhammad Mujahid Islam, sent an online death threat to a Tory MP who had voted to authorize military action in Syria. Wallace was peaceful … until he wasn’t.