Saturday, November 13, 2010

Early Learning

Infants can be groomed for learning


VERY early intervention could be crucial in eradicating educational disadvantage.

BRITAIN'S Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has come up with an initiative that might just break the self-perpetuating cycle of educational disadvantage.

A few weeks ago he announced that the government would be setting aside pound stg. 7 billion ($11.3bn) during the course of the current parliament for a program called the pupil premium.

Most of it will be spent on free nursery-level education for Britain's poorest children.

The aim is to narrow in the early years the vocabulary gap between the disadvantaged young and everyone else. As Clegg put it: "Children from poor homes hear 616 words spoken an hour on average, compared to 2153 words an hour in richer homes. By the age of three, that amounts to a cumulative gap of 30 million words."

The breadth of vocabulary that middle-class infants are exposed to has long been recognised as a significant factor in preparing them for success at school.

It's not just the sheer number of words or being familiar with an abundance of synonyms. A lot of our history, cultural assumptions and sense of humour are embedded in the mother tongue and can be almost effortlessly assimilated.

A broad vocabulary emboldens young minds to extrapolate from the known to new, unfamiliar words and get a sense of what they mean. As well, it introduces the mind to niceties of distinction: for example, the difference between being "pleased", "not displeased" and "not best pleased" (which, for the benefit of younger readers, is a way of saying "not pleased at all").

There is a growing consensus that the most effective way to improve educational outcomes is by concentrating money and attention on the nursery. Recent research into child development at the University of London by Leon Feinstein found that the size of a child's vocabulary at 22 months is a reliable indicator of subsequent performance at school.

Middle-class kids probably aren't any brighter on average than their poorer age-mates, but their infant minds have usually been more assiduously stimulated when it matters most, early on.

The Spectator's Toby Young is a doting father who, as a columnist, takes a great interest in educational reform. In a recent piece, "Baby talk can close the attainment gap", he reflects in the light of his experience on a campaign just launched in Britain by the National Literacy Trust called Talk to Your Baby.

"You'd be forgiven for thinking it was dreamt up by a Notting Hill yummy mummy . . . It sounds absolutely barmy, the parenting equivalent of talking to plants, but in fact there's plenty of evidence to suggest that talking to children under three has an almost magical effect on their cognitive development and transforms them into more intelligent adults."

Young cites a study by a group of Harvard economists who found that children who've had a good nursery education earn, on average, $20 a week more than their peers by the time they're 27. Apparently that holds true even allowing for all the other usual factors, including social and economic status and the quality of their subsequent schooling.

Coming at the question from the other end, he cites a book by two educationalists at the University of Durham. One of their main findings is that the attainment of middle-class children doesn't vary much according to what school they attend. Generally they tend to do well even in poorly performing schools. In a nutshell, a language-rich preschool environment and a domestic setting to match it can inoculate kids against the damage that substandard schools do to their classmates.

Young offers some rather endearing anecdotal evidence. "When my daughter Sasha was around six months old I read her Pride and Prejudice. Sounds pretentious and it is, but that's one of the advantages middle-class children enjoy over working-class children: their parents are willing to risk appearing pretentious if they believe their behaviour will secure their offspring a competitive advantage. And it worked.

"I have a video of Sasha scoring 100 out of 100 in a flash card test before her first birthday. By contrast, I read all three of her brothers Peepo! and none of them started talking until they were two."

Although reading Jane Austen to babes in arms might be taking things a bit far, the first books my generation's parents read us were often quite demanding and designed to captivate the reader as much as the child. I'm thinking of Alice in Wonderland, Gulliver's Travels, The Magic Pudding, the nonsense verse of Ogden Nash and Oscar Wilde's volume of fairy stories. Each of those books has hidden depths and unsettling interludes where things are not as they seem. Each might serve as an introduction to irony.

Young's other point about the role of parental pushiness in securing a competitive advantage for their children is an important one. I noticed it early on, growing up on the raffish outskirts of Bellevue Hill in Sydney.

A lot of the neighbouring blocks of flats were occupied by Jewish immigrants from central Europe and I played and went to primary school with their children. There was scarcely a boy among them who had not settled on a choice of profession, with a modicum of parental nudging, by the time he was six.

Although my parents were people of cultured tastes and ambitious for their only child, my mother's teenage career on John Dease's The Quiz Kids program had given her an aversion to precocious infants and she flatly refused to teach me to read before I went to school. Long before I was literate, most of my playmates could read a little English, speak Yiddish and perhaps another European language, and were beginning Hebrew lessons.

As well, willy-nilly, most learned a musical instrument. While some of them complained of a pressure-cooker existence - and left me feeling like a cheerful underachiever - they had a head start in life that most parents now can only dream about.

My last four columns and this week's have all concentrated on what constitutes a great education and why so few of the rising generation have access to one. I fear it has been rather bleak reading for the most part, which is why I'm ending on a positive note.

Very early intervention to break the cycle of educational disadvantage holds out far more hope - especially for Aboriginal infants and the children of what used to be called the lumpenproletariat - than the public system ever has. It ought to be high on the productivity agendas of both the main parties.

Saturday, October 16, 2010

FoodForThought

American Thinker Article

Sociologists: Liberal Policy Didn't Cause the Mortgage Crisis, Racism Did

By Monte Kuligowski

"Predatory lending aimed at racially segregated minority neighborhoods led to mass foreclosures that fueled the U.S. housing crisis, according to a new study published in the American Sociological Review." That's how the Reuters
story of October 4, "Racial predatory loans fueled U.S. housing crisis: study," opens.

The "new study" is an academic article titled "Racial Segregation and the American Foreclosure Crisis," which was written by a graduate student at Princeton and his professor.

Inasmuch as the "new study" further diverts attention from the real reasons for the foreclosure crisis and advances racism as a cause, the piece is becoming a smashing success within the "mainstream" media. Not only was the banking industry greedy, but new evidence shows that its "predatory lending" policies were in fact racist as well.

During the primaries and race leading to the 2008 presidential election, gas prices happened to skyrocket, and shortly thereafter, the giant housing bubble burst. It was like the breaking of a piƱata, scattering candies everywhere for Candidate Obama. With a little help from the news media, the bubble's burst couldn't have happened at a better time.

Acting with lightning speed, the Democrats and their media created the non sequitur narrative. It was Bush's fault! The free markets failed because the reckless cowboy refused to regulate the banking and financial industries.

Never mind that those were already highly regulated industries -- and no one has yet revealed the regulations that Bush opposed that would have prevented the bursting of the artificial bubble.

Also pay no attention to the fact that the Democrats had controlled Congress since 2006 and had resisted repeated requests for tighter accounting of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The likes of Barney Frank assured us that everything was hunky-dory with the government-backed lending system.

And, lastly, if we are to accept the narrative, we must forget about Jimmy Carter's Community Reinvestment Act, the instrument from which the government created the artificial bubble. The Act is little more than liberal feel-good social engineering that levels the playing field for low-income minorities. According to liberal thought (see the words of former HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo), institutional racial discrimination was the reason banks were not approving enough loans for minorities.

The federal government, therefore, had to intervene. The Clinton administration revived and enforced the Act in the1990s with vengeance; and with a little help from groups like ACORN, minority loan approvals reached all-time highs.

Application of the Act was done in the name of the right to "affordable housing." Affordable housing really meant that everyone has a right to get a mortgage on a home. At the threat of ACORN members getting crazy in bank lobbies and with the coercion of federal law, traditional qualifications for getting loan approvals (verifiable income levels, sufficient down payments, standard credit histories, etc.) were thrown out the window.

What the federal government forced upon the mortgage industry was like the screeching of fingernails on a chalkboard to the principles of the free market system. No businessman in his right mind would approve loans, in the name of social justice, for those who couldn't afford them. So ridiculous was the practice that the government had to create an entire system to back the devalued mortgages generated by liberal economic-justice policy.

Prior to the bubble's burst, the bankers were the good guys so long as they were lending to people who really couldn't afford homes. The government's manipulation of the markets led to trading in worthless paper and derivative hedging by greedy Wall Street investors. But in the heyday of easy loans, easy money, and rampant corruption at Freddie and Fannie, the Democrats were happy and content.

So long as home prices were going up and equity was accruing, the artificial markets seemed almost real. The subprime loans seemed to work. It went on for many years. But after gas prices began hovering at $4.00 per gallon, waves of mortgage defaults crashed throughout the country. Once the system collapsed, a new set of facts was needed -- and reality was quickly turned upside-down.

Even though the mortgage industry was forced to make "risky loans" to meet government quotas, the bankers became the bad guys. Risky loans were blamed on the free market system. Capitalism had failed.

The mortgage people were suddenly guilty of selling "predatory loans" to innocent minorities. Liberal Democrats had authored, implemented, and maintained the irresponsible lending policies which led to the financial crisis. But after the burst, we saw the most culpable Democrats -- Obama, Dodd, Frank, et al. -- blaming the Republicans and capitalism.

The best fiction novelist in the world couldn't make this stuff up. How the establishment left was able to turn the entire situation on its head is beyond belief (in the aftermath, we even witnessed a surreal Dodd-Frank reform bill). And now we have a "new study" to show that the practice of "predatory loans" was likely based on racial discrimination!

In the piece (the new study), the authors first note that the Fair Housing Act of 1968 didn't work out so well and that minorities continue to "live under conditions of hyper segregation" in the big inner cities. Declines in the black population in communities in "New York, Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta, Houston, and Washington," have been "minimal or nonexistent."

I guess we're supposed to attribute the "segregation" problem to racial discrimination and not the government welfare policies that have crippled an entire segment of the black population.

From there, the authors tell us that "a careful reading of recent scholarship on segregation and mortgage lending shows that racial discrimination occurred at each step in the complex chain of events leading from loan origination to foreclosure."

You see, "high levels of segregation create a natural market for subprime lending and cause riskier mortgages, and thus foreclosures, to accumulate disproportionately in racially segregated cities' minority neighborhoods."

Hmm. Why do you suppose "segregation" creates "a natural market for subprime lending?" A subprime mortgage happens to be a type of loan for people with poor credit histories. Think there's any connection between poor credit ratings and government dependency? Perish the thought.

Prior to the politicizing of the mortgage industry, people with poor credit histories were turned down for home loans. "Pay your bills, stay at your job, save your money, and come back and see me in a few years," was the advice of the banker before ACORN and social justice came along. Subprime loans were an accommodation for people who shouldn't have gotten loans in the first place.

Perhaps the most disturbing part of the "new study" is the section in which the authors essentially call blacks in the inner cities stupid. We're supposed to believe that because "pawn shops, payday lenders, and check cashing services that charge high fees and usurious rates of interest," exist in "minority areas ... minority group members are accustomed to exploitation and [are] frequently unaware that better services are available elsewhere."

So the mortgage crisis was caused not by the government forcing lenders to grant loans to those who really didn't qualify, but by "predatory lenders" who targeted inner-city minorities who were just too dumb to know that better services were available elsewhere.

The level of dishonesty associated with the liberal media (and academic) narrative of the mortgage crisis is astounding and if the general public ever gets the facts the Democrat Party will be in peril for decades to come.

Monday, October 04, 2010

Euthanasia

An article in the Australian by Paul Kelly
29thSeptember2010

THE Labor leader should not let this law be put back on the books.

NEW Prime Minister Julia Gillard will be called on to reveal more of her core beliefs, with the immediate test being the euthanasia bill that highlights a cultural divide in Western society.

Greens leader Bob Brown's decision to introduce a private member's bill to restore the power of parliaments in the Northern Territory and the ACT to legislate for euthanasia poses a political challenge for the minority Labor government and for Gillard.

Brown's bill in its mechanics deals with territory powers but its essence is to open the door to euthanasia in Australia.

The bill is facilitated under new parliamentary procedures and the Labor-Greens alliance.

Gillard has announced that Labor will allow a conscience vote but that cannot gainsay the political question: Will the Gillard government become the means to authorise legalised killing in Australia by abandoning the 1997 law of the national parliament?

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This would be a threshold and false step for Australia. It is difficult to imagine that Gillard wants this stamp on her prime ministership.

During the past dozen years euthanasia has won little acceptance in most Western nations beyond The Netherlands and Belgium in Europe and the states of Oregon and Washington in the US. Two years ago human rights champion Frank Brennan told a Senate committee: "Since the commonwealth exercise the US Supreme Court has said there is no right to euthanasia. It would seem to me that on balance nothing has changed or, if anything, the anti-euthanasia case is probably slightly strengthened if we look at developments in equivalent jurisdictions."

The clinching case against euthanasia has been put by Australian-Canadian lawyer and ethicist Margaret Somerville in evidence to the Australian parliament: "If you look at the most fundamental norm or value on which our type of societies are based, it is that we do not kill each other. No matter how compassionate and merciful your reasons for carrying out euthanasia, it still alters that norm that we do not kill each other to one where we do not usually, but in some cases we do."

Once this threshold is crossed and killing is sanctioned, what are the terms, conditions and safeguards? Given the frailty of human history, does anybody doubt the scope and scale for abuses?

In a speech to the NSW parliament on October 16, 1996, premier Bob Carr said this question was "the bottom line that we must face as legislators": Was it possible to legislate euthanasia with the safeguards necessary to assure the sick, vulnerable, indigenous and invalid? "I do not think it is possible," Carr answered as the parliament found against euthanasia.

In 1995 the Northern Territory passed its euthanasia law, an event of moment for the Territory and Australia. The law was a shocker and the safeguards deficient. It was negated by the 1996 bill moved by Liberal MP Kevin Andrews, as a private member, carried in the House of Representatives on an 88-35 conscience vote on December 9, 1996. In the Senate the Andrews bill was passed 38-33 in March 1997.

The national parliament's overriding of the Territory was a proper exercise of its constitutional powers and political authority. There was no issue of territory rights, then or now. The national parliament had the constitutional power and, as Andrews said, if the national parliament could not legislate on an issue that went, literally, to the life and death of its citizens, then what on earth was its purpose?

The entire key to the euthanasia debate lies in its great paradox: consistent polls showing a majority in favour. But what, exactly, are people supporting? The 1996-97 debate provides the answer: most people think that turning off life-support machines and discontinuing life-preserving treatment is euthanasia. In fact, this is nothing to do with euthanasia. Indeed, it is the precise opposite of euthanasia. If a family turns off a life-support machine, the patient dies because of their illness, not because of the doctor. But if the doctor gives a lethal injection, then the patient is killed. This is a fine yet critical distinction.

Because euthanasia involves one person being sanctioned to kill another, it cannot be seen just within a human rights framework. It is an ethical and intellectual failure to pretend that euthanasia is merely a human right awaiting recognition. It is about society and its norms and values. There is no escaping the chasm that euthanasia crosses. Creation of a legal framework to permit killing must affect the way all people perceive their lives and the expectations that friends, family and doctors have of patients.

This issue was best put by former NSW politician Tony Burke, now Minister for Sustainability and Environment in the Gillard government, when he led the 1996 campaign from Labor's side: "There is a maxim often used in the capital punishment debate which applies perfectly to legalised euthanasia: whether you support it or oppose it in principle, if one innocent person is going to be killed, that is too high a price." Exactly.

Former Labor MP Lindsay Tanner, on October 28, 1996, tore to shreds the logic of the Northern Territory law. Asking where the line should be drawn, Tanner asked rhetorically: "Why is it that it is only the terminally ill? Why shouldn't it also be the severely disabled? Why not somebody with an incurable mental illness? Why not children who are terminally ill?"

Tanner's point is that lines cannot be firm or fixed. Reinforcing his argument is that many euthanasia advocates, such as Peter Singer, actively promote its extension more widely.

Tanner also dismissed the furphy about territory rights, saying it was absurd to let the Northern Territory, representing 1 per cent of the people, make such a decision affecting all Australians. Finally, he asked: What about the terminally ill who do not want to die? Good question. It was the question hammered by Burke and Andrews. Once the killing culture is established, the aged, sick and disabled will have to consider whether to put up their hands. They will feel obligated. Financial pressures, healthcare costs and expectations of family will assume new dimensions.

The old joke for the sick is that euthanasia is "putting us out of your misery".

Yes, some people in pain want to die and it is hard to deny their claim. Yet there are many others glad to be alive today who would have volunteered for euthanasia if it had been legal five years ago. As Andrews said in 1996, a well person who is suicidal is offered counselling, but under euthanasia an ill person who is suicidal becomes an option for death.

Brown's bill will enable the territories, if they wish, to pass new euthanasia laws.

Gillard gave a tentative sign last weekend of her doubts.

She will guarantee harsh judgments by branding herself as a pro-euthanasia PM or, even worse, by letting such laws back on the books.

Monday, August 09, 2010

The heritage of Western civilisation

Article from Newsweekly

by Cardinal George Pell AC

I propose to begin by speaking about China. This is not because I believe that China must achieve economic supremacy (20 years ago we were ascribing that honour to Japan), but because China is a radically different culture, nourished for 2,000 years by the teachings of Buddha and Confucius before the destructive barbarism of Mao and the Red Guards; a nation which is now searching for the secrets of Western vitality and for a code or codes to provide decency and social cohesion that is compatible with economic development.

Let me give two examples, admittedly only two straws in a vast cyclone.

In 2002 a group of tourists from the United States visited the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing to hear a talk by a Chinese academic who prefers to remain anonymous. Speaking in the plural for unnamed fellow thinkers, he described their search for what accounted for the pre-eminence, the success of the West all over the world. Their studies ranged widely. Originally they thought the main reason was more powerful guns; then it was Western political systems, before considering the claims of the Western economic system.

Finally, and I quote "in the past twenty years, we have realised that the heart of your culture is your religion: Christianity. ... The Christian moral foundation of social and cultural life was what made possible the emergence of capitalism and then the transition to democratic politics. We don't have any doubt about this". [1]

My second straw in the gale comes from Zhao Xiao, an official Chinese economist, who wrote also in 2002 a fascinating article titled "Market economies with churches and market economies without churches". It made the obvious points that market economies promote efficiency, discourage laziness, force competition. They work and produce wealth. But, he pointed out, a market cannot discourage people from lying or causing harm and indeed may encourage people to be industrious in their efforts to harm others and pursue wealth by any means. [2]

Zhao is critical of the corruption, swindles and exploitation in Chinese economic life. His diagnosis of China provides a fascinating comparison not only with Christian idealism and indifferent performance, but with the brave new world of the Western propagandists for radical secularism where the call for common moral standards is rarely heard.

Zhao writes: "These days Chinese people do not believe in anything. They don't believe in God, they don't believe in the devil, they don't believe in providence, they don't believe in the last judgement, to say nothing about heaven. A person who believes in nothing can only believe in himself. And self-belief implies that anything is possible — what do lies, cheating, harm and swindling matter?" [3]

Often an outsider is needed to see what is painfully obvious, especially if the insight or truth is unpalatable and systematically avoided by many in the commentariat.

In the West even the atheists and secularists live on the remains of the Christian moral system, on a Christian overdraft. In China there is no such invisible hand, no powerful if unacknowledged traditions which inhibit the Darwinians among us from being social Darwinians. Even Richard Dawkins and Peter Singer claim to be philanthropists, believers in brotherly and sisterly love.

In order to recognise our strengths it is useful to examine differently constructed societies such as ancient Rome or modern China and the paths they have chosen.

China today is not a democracy, but a militarily supported dictatorship where hundreds of millions do not participate in the increasing prosperity, and where a ruthless one-child policy has been imposed for decades. When this policy was implemented in a society which prefers sons to daughters, and where modern technology now enables the sex of babies to be discovered before birth, the end result was the current sex ratio of 130 boys born for every 100 girls (the natural range is 103-06 boys for every 100 girls). By 2020 China will have 30 to 40 million more males than females 19 years or younger. [4]

On top of this, China will also follow Russia, Japan and most of Europe into a demographic implosion, with growing numbers of old people and fewer and fewer young people to support them. But China (and indeed India) will do this long before a decent standard of living extends to all or even most of their populations.

It is this social turmoil as well as the spectacular economic development which is impelling thinkers and government leaders in China to search for agents of social cohesion and impelling some of their thinkers to make these startling claims about Western superiority and the Christian contribution to this.

For me Western civilisation derives from Athens, Rome and Jerusalem a wonderful mixture of reason, law and Judaeo-Christian monotheism.

Two rudimentary qualifications or clarifications are immediately necessary.

The dark side of the Western tradition has to be acknowledged, ranging as it does from the revolutionary violence of the French Revolution through to the tyrannies of the 20th century, Nazism and Communism. Pol Pot was trained by Parisian Stalinists and even Mao owed more to Stalin than to the example of any Oriental despot.

But neither Nazism nor Communism should be listed as belonging to Western civilisation, because they both hated the Judaeo-Christian God and substituted the law of the jungle for natural law. George Steiner has even claimed that the insane Nazi hatred of the Jews derived from the unique Jewish role of introducing monotheism into world history; or, in secularist terms, from their invention of God. [5]

My second and much happier qualification is to acknowledge gratefully the English-speaking tradition of Western civilisation to which I belong, the thought world of Shakespeare, Jane Austen and Charles Dickens; Isaac Newton and Charles Darwin; Adam Smith and John Henry Newman; Edmund Burke, William Wilberforce and the Westminster system of government; English common-law and the universities of Oxford and Cambridge. We all have many reasons for gratitude.

Let me explain the peculiarly Christian contribution to Western civilisation by following Pierre Manent, a contemporary French philosopher. For Manent the West was the product of the creative tension, and sometimes fierce conflict, between the "party of nature" — the classical inheritance of Greece and Rome, stressing pride, magnanimity and natural virtues — and the Christian "party of grace", stressing humility, renunciation and the cultivation of the soul. [6]

Manent's claim is that modern man emerged when the tension between these two ancient traditions became open warfare in the 18th century. [7] Modernity and its unhelpfully-named sequel post-modernism regard humans as being above and beyond both nature and transcendence. The two traditional lodestars of God and human nature were rejected, with consequences we are still trying to deal with now. These are the major sources of Western discontent today.

Rejecting the idea that human beings share a constant and irreducible core which makes us human has not only produced massive confusion and incoherence in morals, but helped undermine the concept of human dignity; that each individual possesses an innate dignity, simply by virtue of being human, which must not be violated. In other words, attacks on marriage, family and life produce whirlwinds of discontent across the generations.

This rejection of human nature is at the heart of radical versions of autonomy, individualism and secularism. The propaganda is all about freedom: freedom to choose our own values, and to make and remake ourselves as we please. The reality is a moral relativism that makes evil a question of one's particular perspective or feelings, and a world where human beings become means to others' ends.

Aldous Huxley's Brave New World (1932), with its dim-witted brutes bred for slaves, is still some way away. But our willingness to entertain breeding humans for spare parts (only up to a certain stage for the moment) shows how cheap life has become, and how we threaten to lose our bearings.

Melbourne was visited in recent days by a plague of atheists (I think that's the right collective noun) angrily rejecting an absence. While some have violently rejected Him, for many more God has simply been forgotten. As Alexander Solzhenitsyn observed in his Templeton Lecture in 1983: "If I were called upon to identify briefly the principal trait of the entire twentieth century ... I would be unable to find anything more precise and pithy than to repeat once again: Men have forgotten God". [8]

The consequences of forgetting God have been significant for morality, human dignity, and society in the West. Human beings are no longer made in God's image, but are simply the highest form of animal, whose DNA is 99 per cent identical with that of chimpanzees.

With no eternal destiny there is no danger of judgement in the after-life for our wrong-doings. An enormous effort has gone into pursuing this particular "liberation". As Czeslaw Milosz has pointed out, "A true opium of the people is a belief in nothingness after death—the huge solace of thinking that for our betrayals, greed, cowardice, murders, we are not going to be judged." [9]

Calls by some to reject all religions have been amplified in the wake of Islamist terrorism. But not all religions are the same. Different faiths produce very different societies, as the Chinese specialists with whom we began are now teaching us.

The English historian Christopher Dawson argued that "it is impossible to separate culture from religion", or culture from cult. The biggest mistake that radical secularists and others have made over the last two centuries is to believe that religion is merely "a secondary phenomenon, which has arisen from the exploitation of human credulity". [10] It is impossible to understand the history of the West, or why the West became what it is, without Christianity.

We need to introduce our children to Western civilisation through the teaching of philosophy, history and English literature, in solid rather than debased forms; and edge them towards considering the big questions: Is there truth? What is goodness? Can we believe in beauty?

Knowledge is indispensable but it is never enough by itself. We need to re-present God and the insights about how we should live, which come from recognising our shared human nature. Christians need to challenge intellectually the many agnostics of good will to face up to the absence of alternatives.

Teaching the foundations of Western civilisation is not an intellectual or aesthetic luxury. It is essential to building strong communities and to ensuring that places like Australia remain just and decent societies.

Cardinal George Pell is Catholic Archbishop of Sydney. This article is from a talk he delivered at the Melbourne launch of the Institute of Public Affairs' Foundations of Western Civilisation program on March 25, 2010.

Monday, July 12, 2010

The vagaries of wind farming

Environment
The Great Renewable Energy Rort

Kathy Russell

I thought the message was loud and clear on the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) decision: we don’t want one! So why is this same logic not being applied to the Renewable Energy Target (RET) legislation? The proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) legislation (which incorporated the ETS) was defeated twice in federal parliament, on August 13 and December 2, 2009. After the Opposition blocked attempts to further debate the legislation in February this year, the government announced on April 27 that the implementation of its proposed CPRS would be delayed until at least 2013.

The ETS aimed to create a price penalty for carbon with the overriding objective being to promote carbon abatement. It was effectively a new tax which would artificially inflate our cost of living and most importantly our manufacturing cost base, reduce any shred of international competitive advantage any industry had in this country and essentially ruin a perfectly good economy for no real gain.

On August 20, 2009, the Renewable Energy Target (RET) legislation was passed, requiring electricity retailers and large industrial users to purchase at least 20 per cent of their electricity from renewable energy sources by 2020.

In much the same way as the ETS created a price penalty for carbon, the RET creates a price penalty for electricity in the form of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) with the same overriding objective being to promote carbon abatement. The RET is effectively a tax, as was the proposed ETS. By creating a political environment which guarantees uptake of inefficient and very expensive energy forms—for example wind energy—again it artificially inflates our cost of living and most importantly our manufacturing cost base and reduces significantly the international competitive advantage any industry has in this country and essentially ruins a perfectly good economy for no real gain.

Worse still, unlike a normal tax which provides revenue into government coffers for the general provision of infrastructure and welfare to the country as a whole, the RET singularly provides benefit to a select few—renewable energy companies. There is no offset for those forced to bear the cost.

So why the “disconnect” between the ETS and the RET? Aren’t they the same thing? They both have similar objectives with questionable outcomes. Both create artificial markets and costs. Why does the Opposition reject the ETS yet support the RET?

There was a huge public outcry during the ETS debate which motivated the Opposition to act and block the government’s proposed legislation. Is it a lack of public understanding which is allowing the amended RET legislation introduced into parliament in May this year to proceed unhindered? In the interest of greater public awareness, let me expand the concept further with my wind energy example and demonstrate what damage the RET is actually doing in real terms.

Of intermittent nature, wind energy needs 100 per cent backup capacity and the requirement for the market to purchase substitute power when this energy form needs to be shut down due to excessive wind speeds or when the wind dies down. This happens regularly, and details within the live generation data prove it[1]. These “loss of load” incidents have the ability to occur on a grand scale and require intervention from backup facilities at a premium—up to the current market cap of $10,000/MW. Who pays for the added cost of this unnecessary electricity spot market volatility? Yes—you guessed it—individuals (that is, voters) and industry.

In addition, wind energy cannot be substituted for base load, nor can it be relied upon for peak requirements and is classified as self-dispatching. This wind energy supply has a zero bid price into the market, unlike other generators who must compete via price nomination for the opportunity to supply their product. Wind energy drives out the highest price generators first and, as it doesn’t bid into the market, receives the next highest generator’s bid. During periods of low demand, some generators bid a negative price in order to guarantee the uptake of their supply (some energy generators can’t just be switched off). The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is looking to introduce a floor price into the market in order to accommodate wind energy in this mix. Wind energy does not compete in a free market environment. Its sale and revenue are guaranteed. Who pays for this artificially high price acting over and above normal market forces? Yes—you guessed it—individuals (that is, voters) and industry.

But wait, there’s more. The Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) which go with the RET are like gold. From a high of approximately $46/MW in March this year, wholesale certificate prices were trading at $38/MW at the end of May[2]. This is the subsidy component which makes the business plan viable and is received on top of the price paid per MW in the dispatch market. Current planning approvals and applications for over 2000MW in western Victoria alone attest to the bonanza to be had. Foreign companies are leading the charge. Profits shift offshore and the underlying cost of the RECs are born by whom? Yes—you guessed it again—individuals (that is, voters) and industry.

Then there are the newly created opportunities to manipulate the electricity market. Destabilise the grid with wind energy and then compensate with fast-acting gas generation at peak prices. Now here’s one for the ACCC to watch. Did anyone notice the most recent capital investments of Origin and AGL to place Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT) in strategic alignment with wind energy investment? Take note of the choice of generator. Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT—0.4 tCO2/MW) are much more efficient than OCGTs (0.7 tCO2/MW) from an emissions perspective, but unlike OCGTs, they do not have the ability to ramp up and down as quickly. If their investment strategy was to produce gas-generated electricity with the lowest carbon emissions possible, then CCGT would be the choice. If their investment strategy was to produce gas-generated electricity which could take advantage of opportunities in the market via its flexibility in ramping up and down on demand to satisfy grid instability issues, then OCGT would be the choice. Who pays for this fast-acting, shadowing capacity at peak prices? Yes—you guessed it again—individuals (that is, voters) and industry.

And what about the claim of jobs? Australia’s economic recovery on the back of a brave new environmentally friendly world? Construction jobs at the start-up of a wind farm are a given—this is so with the construction of any new plant or industrial facility (including a gas-generating plant) or public infrastructure project. The number of jobs long-term in the wind industry is rather less than ideal. Wind farm control is both electronic/automatic and remotely monitored. Maintenance positions are highly specialised and are not generally filled by local regional communities. Families attached to these specialised technicians don’t tend to relocate to these regional communities as they are moved around different wind farm locations on a rotational basis. The Spanish experience has been that each new green job created cost one million euros and caused 2.2 jobs to be lost in power-consuming industries[3]. Net job losses on the back of reduced economic activity from cost increases in the electricity market—no surprise on this one. Who pays for this unnecessary burden to Australia’s welfare obligations? Right again—individuals (that is, voters) and industry.

And all this for no tangible benefit. Emissions will not be reduced. Not one coal-fired power station will be switched off. Additional back-up capacity will have to be built. Artificially-based capital development of this scale and nature also has the effect of pushing up the cost of borrowing money. An increase in the cost of living and of the manufacturing cost base sends jobs offshore—to the smart countries who don’t entertain fantasies such as RETs and ETSs. Not to mention the vast tracts of land occupied by wind turbines and the destructive effect they have on communities forced to reside with them. This technology type is far from benign. Just ask the communities at Waubra, near Ballarat (and those at Toora, Cape Bridgewater, Capital, Cullerin, Hallet and Crookwell) who are suffering health effects and have started abandoning their homes, creating a new form of epidemic to add to the already struggling health and community support infrastructure. All of this would not be happening if it weren’t for the RET.

But don’t take my word for it. Take the time to listen to other market participants and commentators.

Origin Energy has been doing its best to blow the whistle on the same issues for years. But at what point do they join the rort, given that no one is listening?

In an important speech to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) in Sydney on April 13, Grant King, the CEO of Origin Energy, predicted massive increases in electricity prices driven

largely by the current policy environment, large amounts of renewables being forced into the system, uncosted charges for those renewables given current policy settings and substantial increases in transmission and distribution costs.[4]

In February 2006, Origin Energy submitted a technical paper to the Victorian government entitled “Driving Investment in Renewable Energy in Victoria—Options for a Victorian market-based measure, Submission by Origin Energy in response to the Issues Paper released by Department of Infrastructure and Department of Sustainability and Environment, December 2005”. The reason I mention the detail here rather than in a footnote is because there is a story to tell with regard to this document’s mysterious disappearance from the public domain. Submissions were recorded on the Department of Primary Industries (DPI) website for some years. A Google search now using the key words “Origin Driving Investment in Renewable Energy in Victoria” will produce a number of links to the DPI website. But guess what? When you follow these links, the site opens and a message appears stating that this document has been deleted. Sounds like the “Climategate” response to FOI requests: delete the required information.

But all is not lost. Copies were downloaded when the report was first made available. And their contents make for sensational reading. Some incredibly damning statements are made about the technical viability of policies which promote wind energy (because of its industry maturity) ahead of other developing technologies because of their inability to “step up” and be commercially viable within the time frames demanded.

The following excerpts are important because of their relevance to the argument, and important to acknowledge because so many people either ignore these inconvenient truths and irresponsibly plough on regardless or simply aren’t aware of these basic limitations in the first place.

Unreliable capacity requires additional generation support. Additional wind capacity will require two forms of generation support because of the intermittent nature of the underlying energy source:

variability outside 5 minute dispatch intervals—gas turbine generation, which can take between 15 and 30 minutes to reach maximum output, is either required to run to adjust for wind generation variability or to stand idle as back up support; and

variability inside 5 minute dispatch intervals—ancillary services generation is required, sometimes at significant extra cost, to cater for wind generation variability. [5]

Keep in mind that grid-supplied electricity is a unique commodity; its production for and consumption from the grid must be matched instantaneously and continuously, day and night. Not averaged out over days, hours or even half-hourly intervals. The grid is not like some large lake into which electricity might be dumped. This is an unchanging law about grid operation.

The Origin document goes on:

The costs of both forms of generation support are ultimately borne by energy consumers. Moreover, these costs are magnified as greater amounts of wind generation are connected to the system and more generation support is required. This is compounded by inter-connector constraints from time to time as more generation support is required from other regions in the NEM … 6

The intermittent nature of wind generation translates into higher electricity spot price volatility. Modelling of the impact of 1000 MW of wind generation on the South Australian electricity market indicates that 1 per cent of the time 250 MW of supply could be lost within the half hour and 390 MW within the hour which, in Origin’s view, would significantly increase electricity spot price volatility. Preliminary modelling by Origin indicates that Victorian electricity spot prices could increase by between $2 and $5/MWh (average flat price impact) as a result of a similar level of variability occurring in Victoria. The cost of additional financial risk associated with greater electricity spot price volatility will ultimately be borne by energy consumers. [6]

The fact that wind energy supply can be lost in such a short period is no joke. Commentators who make assertions to the contrary appear blissfully unaware that the performance data of all major wind farms connected to the eastern Australian grid is readily available in the public domain[7].

To demonstrate that a widespread loss of wind generation can and will occur, the night of August 18, 2009, provides a perfect example. Very strong prevailing winds of a weather system covering the Cullerin and Capital wind farms in New South Wales (about 40 kilometres apart) caused the control systems of both wind farms to shut down the wind turbines for their own protection. Each wind farm had been operating near its rated full capacity of approximately 120 MW combined, which fell to zero within two minutes, starting at 5.19 p.m. This is a very significant loss that had to be replaced immediately.

The Origin document continues in its criticism of policy which promotes renewable energy such as wind over more economic forms of greenhouse gas abatement:

The economic cost of gas-fired generation is lower than wind generation—the combined capital and running costs of a gas-fired power station are approximately half that of a wind turbine (adjusted for the intermittency of wind and including higher running costs of running a gas-fired power station);

Gas-fired generation is a more cost-effective source of greenhouse gas abatement than wind generation—at approximately half the economic cost, a gas-fired power station reduces emissions up to twice as much as a wind turbine, because of the better utilisation of the gas-fired power station and the relatively low emission intensity of gas-fired electricity (which makes gas at least 4 times more cost-effective on a $/tCO2 basis than wind);

Gas-fired generation is more reliable than wind generation which is reliant on the vagaries of nature—gas-fired generation can be turned off and on to meet demand requirements while wind generation is regarded as firm for about only 8 per cent of the time (according to ESIPC in South Australia);

Gas-fired generation can provide much larger increments to generation capacity to satisfy growing demand—a large scale gas-fired power station may be up to 1000MW which is all available to generate on average 95 per cent of the time compared to a 1000MW of wind generation which is available to generate on average 33 per cent of the time; and

Diversity and security of supply are improved by gas-fired generation and diminished by wind generation—gas-fired power stations stimulate gas supply sources (potentially expanding the range of viable gas production in regional Victoria available for other uses) and connect to the transmission system (potentially in more remote areas) without lowering supply security (as would be the case with wind)[8]

Pretty damning isn’t it? So why isn’t the government listening?

A lack of transparency coupled with an absence of any analysis of live performance data in assessing the effects of policy in real terms from the highest levels down are contributing to these enormous mistakes.

In an effort to combat the lack of transparency and non-availability of live performance data, Andrew Miskelly has, of his own initiative, developed a way to make electricity generation data more freely available and user friendly (see the website). Why has this task been left for unpaid “privateers” to complete?

The electricity provided to the national grid by every connected generator of greater than 30 MW installed capacity is published daily on its website by the AEMO, the operator of the eastern Australian grid. It is a statutory requirement that the data is made available in the public domain. At www.aemo.com.au there is the statement “under Clause 3.13.4(r) of the National Electricity Rules AEMO is also required to publish such data to Registered Participants, in a daily file covering all intervals of the previous trading day”. In fact, the data is supplied to the website as the average output at five-minute intervals for each full day, midnight to midnight, at about 4 a.m. the following morning, every morning. Andrew has created a method which captures this information release.

On the back of this original information breakthrough, Andrew and Dr Tom Quirk teamed up to write a paper which debunked the myth of geographical dispersion[9]—the myth being that wind farms can be a reliable source of electricity if they are dispersed over a sufficiently wide area[10]. The wind will be “blowing somewhere”, it is claimed. Given the real production output of wind farms in South Australia, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, Andrew and Dr Quirk analysed the data and were able to determine that wind farms in south-eastern Australia are unlikely to supply any significant power output that system operators can rely on. Using five-minute power measurements for the month of June 2009, it was determined that the one benefit of grouping wind farms is that the 90 per cent reliability point is increased from 6 per cent for South Australia, 5 per cent for Victoria, to 10 per cent overall. This figure should be expected to vary from month to month and from year to year as a result of changing weather patterns with no marked improvement as a result of saturation of wind turbines within respective states.

Since the Miskelly/Quirk paper was written, there have been a number of sustained meteorological events which highlight even further the obvious fallacy of geographical dispersion. The period November 1 to 21, 2009, was of particularly low output across the whole eastern Australian grid. More recently, May 13 to 20 paints a terrible output generation picture if you’re a wind farmer. The operational data originally posted on the AEMO website for these date ranges is available via Andrew’s www.landscapeguardians.org.au/data/aemo database. Also, go to http://windfarmperformance.info/ and alter the “change date” tab and flick through the May date range provided to confirm the graph below.




The above combined wind farm output incorporates all of the wind farms over 30 MW capacity which are connected to the eastern Australian grid and are listed to the right of this graph. This equates to a total installed capacity of 1611 MW. If this maximum potential output were to be demonstrated on the above graph, it would appear just above the 1600. As previously mentioned, not a good week if you’re a wind farmer. So much for the certainty of geographic dispersion improving wind farm reliability.

Wind farms on the eastern Australian grid have a geographic spread of over 1100 kilometres east-west and over 500 kilometres north-south. This grid has the largest geographic dispersal of any interconnected grid in the world. Weather systems can occupy and influence large if not whole areas within this geographic spread[11]. Further, no matter how many turbines are erected throughout this geographic area, wind energy will always require instantaneous reserves equal to the total installed wind farm capacity to be kept operational at all times. This reserve requirement is in addition to any reserves presently required to cover the loss of any large controllable generation unit, simply because the scenario that a large generation unit (such as a coal power station) might fail remains a separate, independent probability to that of wind farms’ frequent “failures”.

Furthermore, Andrew’s data base provides conclusive evidence that wind farm output does suddenly start and stop on a regular basis, and does so in a totally unpredictable fashion. This data cannot be averaged out for the purpose of analysing wind farm performance and its ability to supply a secure, reliable, efficient energy source into the grid. To do so completely ignores that unchanging law of grid operation, where supply and demand must be matched instantaneously and continuously, all the time. Not averaged out over days, hours or even half hourly intervals. This unpredictability may well have serious impacts on the controllability and stability of the eastern Australian grid.

It is impossible to forecast wind speeds and wind speed variation over timeframes of seconds to minutes, or to provide any sort of accurate estimate of wind speed variation across the meteorological micro-scale of any given wind farm location. It is possible to forecast some sort of regional mean wind speed (that is, average value) over timeframes of hours. But again, averages are not good enough when it comes to managing the grid second by second. Thus the flow-on effects such as market volatility, higher electricity prices, grid instability, security and efficiency issues become an everyday reality if the current RET policy promoting wind energy remains unchallenged.

And how is this totally unacceptable risk being justified by our incumbent governments? At a state level in Victoria I received a letter on the subject from the Office of the Minister for Energy and Resources, signed by the Chief of Staff, Ms Susanne Legana, dated November 17, 2009:

Regarding the intermittency of wind, this is partially mitigated by the installation of multiple wind farms, as together these smooth out individual variability. In 2007, there was a period of only about 4 hours where the combined output of wind farms in Victoria was zero.

God love her! This was November 2009, mind you, and Susanne was quoting 2007 data. Not only this, but Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales were at that exact moment in the grip of extremely calm weather. In the first three weeks of November there was a total of 5.5 hours in which the combined output of wind farms in Victoria was zero or below (important fact: sometimes turbines are net users of electricity because at all times they require energy to initiate and maintain blade spin, cooling of motors, remote monitoring, turning of blades to face the wind, flashing lights, and so on). In addition, for a further 5.67 hours the combined output of wind farms in Victoria in this period was between zero and 1 MW. This is just as bad. What good is 1 MW of power from all that capacity? On top of this again, for a further 26.25 hours the combined output of wind farms in Victoria in this same time frame was between 1 and 5 MW.

That’s a total of 37.42 hours of less than 5 MW Victorian combined wind farm energy generation during a three-week period from a combined maximum generating capacity of 439 MW. So for a day and a half in a three-week period, all the wind farms in Victoria combined produced less than 1 per cent of their capacity. How is this smoothing out intermittency? How is this energy security? How is this timely analysis of live data? The Office of the Minister for Energy and Resources is two years behind!

In total, the system produced at less than 50 MW for the equivalent of eight days. It produced at less than 100MW for the equivalent of thirteen days. The average output for the whole Victorian system for the three-week period was 86.32 MW. It peaked at 341 MW at 11.05 a.m. on November 3 during one of two days of elevated activity. I must reiterate that it is very important not to rely on averages alone when analysing this data. Big movements from minute to minute are not the exception, but the rule. On November 3 at 4.10 p.m. the combined system was producing 306.07 MW; at 4.15 it was producing 290.445 MW; at 4.20 it was producing 274.28 MW; at 4.25 it was producing 258.21 MW. This was a loss of 47.86 MW within fifteen minutes. This is not an isolated incident.

Now imagine a further 2000 MW installed capacity within this Victorian system as per approved and planned applications. Assuming a total capacity of 2439 MW, a variance of 11 per cent capacity in fifteen minutes would translate to a loss of 268 MW from the system. This type of event will occur regularly.

On the same day at 03:05 a.m., 77.27 MW was lost in ten minutes; at 4.50 a.m., 80.43 MW was lost in twenty-five minutes; on a further six instances on the same day 10 per cent or greater capacity was lost within minutes. And this isn’t counting the equivalent increases being forced into the grid. Multiply this out against a larger installed capacity as is intended for the state and this is the equivalent of a large gas-fired generator being switched on and off regularly. The operator of a gas-fired generator would be fined hundreds and thousands of dollars if it were to perform in this manner. The wind generators get away with this behaviour.

So can you now see why backup generation must not only be built, but kept running at all times? What’s the point of installing two systems when one alone will suffice? Where are the savings?

Frightening isn’t it? And the people managing and governing our country are not analysing this data and therefore do not have a clue what effects their policies are having in real terms. The ignorance gets worse. Note the following paragraph from the same letter:

Wind farms are private sector investments which derive income from two sources, the sale of electricity and the sale of Renewable Energy Certificates (REC). Private investors would not continue to develop wind energy projects if they were not commercial in competitive electricity and REC markets.

If the Office of the Minister for Energy and Resources were private enterprise, the Board and the CEO would be sacked. Where is the accountability of the Australian government? Wind energy does not compete in the electricity market. It drops in and takes the next available bid price. And no, the private sector wind farm investor is not happy with the current competitive nature of wind versus solar in the REC market, and that’s why they have lobbied Penny Wong, federal Minister for Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Water so intensively to have their own market in which they do not have to compete. Thus the new RET legislation currently before the parliament. New wind energy gets electricity price plus REC value with no requirement to compete. New gas energy gets electricity price only plus has to compete for opportunity to supply. Hello? Who’s driving this bus?

Contrary to the belief of the Minister for Energy and Resources that wind farms would not be built if they weren’t able to compete in the electricity and REC market is the unavoidable fact that private investors are applying in their droves for new wind farm developments due to current friendly policy which removes the risk of competition and guarantees cash windfalls. And it’s our money the government is using as bait to achieve their political objective of being “seen to be green”.

Departments such as the Energy and Resources Department quite clearly do not have a clue. They lack a basic understanding of industry dynamics, with no level of accountability or responsibility, and there is no intelligent, transparent analysis or debate behind their decision making.

A blind faith in RET legislation and an ETS being able to solve all of these issues is driving this madness. A blind faith in a Green utopia which decrees “in theory” (confirmed by computer modelling?) that we must have a generous mix of all energy types with a magical “20 per cent renewable” falling out at the end of the equation. And an even blinder faith which assumes we can acquire all of these different energy types off the shelf and simply plug them into our current electricity grid, ready to use. In Australia, we are not connected to any neighbouring countries which have the luxury of fast-acting secure conventional backup generation capacity (such as nuclear, hydro, gas and coal) as is the European experience. Why are these basic facts being ignored? If the system is going to be forced to work in an inefficient manner for no gain (and that includes little if any carbon abatement), we have a right to know: “At what cost?”

The damage does not end here. Environmental costs of equal if not greater significance must also be included in this analysis. The most significant of all is the human cost.

Human health is an issue of major concern for those forced to reside near turbines and for good reason. I know because I speak and correspond with these people every day. I know because I am invited into their homes and for the relatively brief length of my stay, I experience their symptoms. Luckily for me, I am able to leave, and in doing so my symptoms disappear. Not so lucky the people who can’t leave and are forced to endure long-term exposure with significant long-term consequences. Some have been fortunate enough to have the means to leave their homes. The majority are not so lucky, having lost the ability to sell their most valuable asset, their farm or home.

Symptoms range in strength and severity and include sleep disturbance, motion sickness and nausea, inner ear symptoms, headaches and migraines, excessive tiredness, palpitations, high blood pressure, eye symptoms, and cognitive as well as gastrointestinal problems. The residents of some homes experience more problems than others, and sometimes certain family members within these homes are affected more than others. Explanations for these differences include a combination of an individual’s physical predisposition, distance from the wind farm and climatic conditions which affect the operation of the turbines at the time.

In a rather clever analogy, a Waubra resident recently compared her experiences of ocean racing with those of living next door to a wind farm. She said in ocean racing, some of those on board the same boat would fall ill to seasickness immediately and be totally incapable of moving for the remainder of the journey, some would be ill yet could still function, while others felt no ill effects at all. Much the same happens around a wind farm, although the biggest concentration of people affected in Australia appears to be at the Waubra wind farm site, north-west of Ballarat. Unlike ocean racing, where a seasickness sufferer is given sympathy and accommodated in their reduced capacity, those suffering wind farm sickness are ridiculed by wind company managing directors[12] and their genuine concerns are ignored by those who are supposed to at the very least initiate investigations, support and protection—the government and its delegated agencies.

Sound familiar? Parallels with the tobacco and asbestos histories come to mind— misrepresenting data, hiring PR firms, attacking the detractors. Remember, there is a great deal of money and green votes at stake here.

In response to a Legislative Council adjournment debate issue raised by Peter Kavanagh MLC in the Victorian parliament on September 2, 2009, in relation to the possible health effects of wind farm generators, on October 14 the Minister for Workcover Tim Holding announced: “WorkSafe has commenced work with the Department of Human Services (DHS) and the Environment Protection Authority, and will work with local government and relevant individuals to identify potential hazards related to the issues raised by Mr Kavanagh.”

In January, Mr Holding announced the conclusion of his investigation with the finding that after examining both peer reviewed and validated scientific research, no correlation could be found between direct health effects and the operation of wind turbines. However, not one resident who had raised their concerns with the wind company was interviewed or even approached as part of this investigation.

On November 11, I participated in the National Wind Farm Development Guidelines: Stakeholder Reference Group (SRG) meeting. The meeting was called to discuss what the working group had planned for the consultation process for the draft National Wind Farm Development Guidelines, the timeframe for analysing the public comments and addressing those comments in the final version. It was expected that the SRG would provide a diverse range of views and highlight issues that the Working Group could address during and after the public consultation period. It was an experience to say the least.

Of greatest concern to me was the stated purpose of the guidelines: “to support government renewable energy policy by providing a nationally consistent set of methods for addressing issues that are unique or significant to wind farms”[13] (emphasis added). Beside the fact that the wind companies present at that meeting decreed that they would not follow guidelines which were not a legislative requirement (so what was the point of having a nationally consistent set of guidelines?), there was no mention of health effects in any of the chapters or appendices. As far as I and the hundreds I represented at that meeting were concerned, health was a major subject “unique or significant to wind farms”, yet there was no mention or recognition of it, let alone a guideline on the subject. How could potential safeguards be put in place if the problem itself was not recognised? By not acknowledging the problem, were we not condemned to more of the same mistakes?

This was quickly countered with the “no peer-reviewed evidence” excuse during the ensuing debate. But during a subsequent break, the convenors (from the Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, DEWHA) approached me and explained that until there was evidence of a conclusive scientific peer-reviewed nature, they couldn’t act. But if I was to obtain something of significance, I should provide it to them and I would be assured of the subject’s recognition. Yeah, right. Quite clearly, the state and federal governments had no intention of initiating the scientific studies required to investigate the causal links. Given this was a new frontier in scientific research, the cost, resources and expertise required to complete the task were extensive, so how was this the responsibility of ordinary Australians? Wasn’t it the government’s responsibility to at least send in an assessment team to interview and investigate the people affected?

Rather than rely on the assertions of DEWHA employees, I then moved on to Peter Garrett, federal Minister for the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts (the position he held at that time). I was beginning to understand in explicit detail how the pink-batts tragedy had evolved. On February 18, 2010, I met with Mr Garrett and took with me a Waubra resident who was suffering health effects and had been forced to move out of his home. I also took and provided to Mr Garrett a short documentary of the testimonials provided by other Waubra residents who were unable to attend the meeting. We also provided medical evidence and expert advice, some of which was personally addressed to Mr Garrett. On the issue of health and its omission from his National Guidelines, Mr Garrett contended that he had no jurisdiction in this area and it was the responsibility of the states. He stated he had jurisdiction only under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC Act). When asked why he was writing National Guidelines which included subjects such as noise, shadow flicker, electromagnetic interference, aircraft safety, fire risk, if he had no jurisdiction in these areas, he would not respond.

I then introduced Mr Garrett to the Waubra resident who had been displaced from his home. I took the evidence to him. There was no show of concern on Mr Garrett’s behalf, no request for this man to relay his story so that he could at least make his own assessment. Just an assistant next to Mr Garrett pointing out the necessary response in the response book: “there is no peer-reviewed scientific evidence to support the link”.

We left Mr Garrett with some very fundamental and damning evidence which at the very least would be grounds to commence an initial assessment. He promised to respond personally. To this date (June 1) we have not received any correspondence, let alone a response to the information we provided. Unlike the pink-batts scandal, he can’t say he wasn’t warned of the consequences to people’s health on the wind farm issue.

Given Mr Garrett’s perception that health was a state government responsibility, on March 15 I attended a Victorian State Community Cabinet meeting in Geelong. With me I took a number of other Waubra residents as well as residents from other wind-farm-approved locations who would soon be affected by turbine operation near their homes. We all wanted answers. The ones we got were quite unexpected.

First, the Premier, John Brumby, had no idea that his wind farm policy mandated use of a New Zealand noise standard. Mr Brumby and Mr Batchelor (Minister for Energy and Resources) equally had no idea that any national standards or guidelines, if and when they were released, would have no jurisdictional power in Victoria over their mandated New Zealand standard.

The most telling answer of all was Mr Batchelor’s response to Waubra residents when they relayed to him what was happening in their own homes: it was up to them to prove there was an issue with scientific peer-reviewed evidence to back up their claims, because the wind companies had been granted development approval through the proper channels and it was hardly fair that they should have to change their practices just because someone complained. When he was told that it wasn’t just one person complaining and an investigation should be the government’s responsibility, Mr Batchelor used the same old excuse, “there is no peer-reviewed scientific evidence to support such a study”.

How on earth can they make this determination when not one incumbent government minister or their representatives or agencies will even visit Waubra, let alone speak with the residents? After all this (and much more)—you have to ask yourself: Why?

There are only two possible answers to this question. Either it is true that there is no connection between health and wind turbines and the people I have personally surveyed in Waubra and the people making similar claims at other wind farms in Australia and throughout the world are imagining them, or ...

... the ramifications of undertaking such a study and finding a connection are too great from the perspective of either litigation (with the potential to destroy the wind industry in Australia and any chance of achieving the RET’s 20 per cent renewable target by 2020) or planning scheme adjustments (which would recognise and prevent health issues and thus severely alter the locations at which wind turbines can be placed, again jeopardising the 20 per cent renewable target by 2020).

Either way, there is obviously a great deal at stake here, which the government and the wind industry are keen to keep a lid on. Ultimately a proper study which satisfies the current scientific peer-reviewed criteria is required to determine an outcome either way. The government has a duty of care and it should fulfil this obligation.

On May 20, we met with the state Liberal Opposition leader Ted Baillieu, who had the week before released a wind farm policy in the lead-up to the state election in November. Amongst other things, his policy mandates a two-kilometre setback of turbines from homes (currently there are no planning setback provisions, with homes unwillingly as close as 400 metres in some approved developments). We took this one step further with Mr Baillieu and sought his opinion on the necessity of an approved health study. His opinion was in the affirmative and he later confirmed this affirmation at the media conference on the steps of Parliament House in answer to a direct question on camera. A Ballan resident with turbines proposed within a kilometre of her home who was not part of the earlier meeting but was there to listen to Mr Baillieu speak, burst into tears on hearing this news. Such was her relief. Again I ask the question: “At what cost?” We have a right to know.

From the work I have undertaken on the health issue with experts to date I have a fair idea of what is contributing to the problem from a physical and planning perspective. I don’t believe there is a single contributing factor or a single available solution. I do believe that what can’t be acknowledged can’t be changed. I do believe without a question of doubt that this is an avoidable problem. I do believe without a question of doubt that the same mistakes are being made in current planning approvals via policy which will guarantee the displacement of hundreds more rural residents situated close to turbines through no fault of their own. I don’t care if my hypotheses of contributing factors or suggested solutions are wrong, as long as someone determines what they should be and fixes the situation before more innocent rural families are subjected to the same form of torture as those currently suffering.

The moral high ground taken by those in government and those initially in favour of turbines is that they are doing their bit for the environment. People not wanting turbines in close proximity to their properties or homes are considered collateral damage by the very planning process established to protect them. Any risk or resulting damage is not costed in its assessment of “benefits to the greater community”. And then these people discover that they are being sacrificed for no real gain—that their loss and harm will not contribute to saving the planet.

This is what the Renewable Energy Target is doing to real people in real terms, right now. Why is anyone of sound mind supporting this legislation?

Kathy Russell, a Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia, is Vice-President of Australian Landscape Guardians Inc, whose website www.landscapeguardians.org.au contains some of the data referred to in this article. She lives in rural Victoria.



[1] Data available via the Australian Landscape Guardians website; www.landscapeguardians.org.au

[2] Green Energy Markets, www.greenmarkets.com.au

[3] Juan Carlos University, “Study of the effects on employment of public aid to renewable energy sources”, March 2009

[4] Terry McCrann, “Your power bills will triple”, Herald Sun, 15 April 2010

[5] DRIVING INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY IN VICTORIA - Options for a Victorian market-based measure, Submission by Origin Energy in response to the Issues Paper released by Department of Infrastructure and Department of Sustainability and Environment, February 2006, page 10

[6] “DRIVING INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY IN VICTORIA”, by Origin Energy, February 2006, page 11

[7] Data available via the Australian Landscape Guardians website; www.landscapeguardians.org.au

[8] “DRIVING INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY IN VICTORIA”, by Origin Energy, February 2006, page 13

[9] Miskelly A and Quirk T, “Wind Farming in South Eastern Australia”, Energy and Environment, Volume 20 No.8 2009/Volume 21 No.1 2010, Multi Science Publishing Co. Ltd.

[10] Diesendorf M. The Base-Load Fallacy. http://www.sustainabilitycentre.com.au/BaseloadFallacy.pdf

[11] Anon. 2009 State of the Energy Market 2009. Australian Energy Regulator, page 72, available for download at http://www.accc.gov.au/content/index.phtml?itemId=904614

[12] Brett Thomas, Managing Director, ACCIONA, letters to the editor, Geelong Advertiser, 14 September 2009.

[13] Draft National Wind Farm Development Guidelines, http://www.ephc.gov.au/taxonomy/term/25, page 7.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Communists morph into other isms?

Catholics led charge against communists

* Angela Shanahan
* From: The Australian
* July 10, 2010 12:00AM

Many DLP supporters sacrificed their careers to save Australia from communism

TRUTH is the daughter of time, so the saying goes, so we can assume that love of truth is at the core of Bob Carr's celebrated love of history.

The ex-premier of NSW is absolutely right to be shocked by the revelations of Mark Aarons that some Labor party figures were also communists.

However, as someone who arrived sometime later than Carr in student politics, but on the same side and slightly earlier than the present federal Opposition Leader, I find it extraordinary that suspicions worth voicing had never crossed his mind before Aarons's new book.

Responses to Carr's piece in The Australian last Monday were everything from "gosh, what do you know, they [the Labor anti-communists] were right all along", to "I wish they were alive to see it ".

Some of them still are alive, from among those who knew the Democratic Labor Party was not just the result of people choosing to pack up and go elsewhere from the Labor Party.

They knew that Catholics were driven out of the Labor Party by H. V. Evatt and his communist allies, whom Carr only now discovers controlled the ALP.

They were brave men such as former senator Brian Harradine, who was expelled from the Labor Party in 1975 by people who it appears may not even have been entitled to be members of that party.

As a reader wrote: "What comes out of this book is not to praise the 'stay-in-and-fighters' (as Carr does) but those who sacrificed their careers for principle and preferenced Menzies, so ensuring that from 1954-1972 a popular front government did not rule Australia." True.

I am the granddaughter of a Labor anti-communist "grouper", the daughter of DLP converts and a part of the DLP's youth organisation during the election campaign of 1972.

It is doubly irritating to read almost 38 years after the election of Gough Whitlam's hopelessly inept government about the heroism of St Gough and in the same space, that "shock, Bob Santamaria was right".

This from the people who at that time treated our deadly serious concerns as the ravings of right-wing religious loonies.

According to Carr, Whitlam stood up to the communists in the party and saved Labor: "It was he who took on the Victorian executive, even abusing them to their faces, in 1967 at the first Victorian conference he addressed as leader."

Fair enough, good on Gough. But so what? To which communists that Gough "took on" is Carr referring? The ones that were secretly dual party members or the ones who made it into Whitlam's government and carried the contagion in their hearts.

Men such as the appalling North Vietnamese sympathiser Jim Cairns, or the naive "buy back Australia" man, Rex Connor?

Then of course there was their buddy, the tainted social reforming architect of our chaotic divorce laws Lionel Murphy (once described by legal writer Richard Ackland as a "puce-nosed jackal", a sentiment echoed by the now deceased Paddy McGuinness).

The truth is that Whitlam might have confronted the communists at the party meeting, but it wasn't Whitlam who ultimately put in the hard slog and actually defeated them; it was the right-wing religious loonies.

It was people such as my grandfather, who would come home all beaten up from meetings, ordinary DLP members, and formerly lifelong Labor voters such as my mother and father who were not even in Australia in 1954 but who were nonetheless branded as groupers by the solidly Labor parents and friends at the local school in Sydney.

Their main cause was not just anti-communism but state aid.

It was people who were branded as "refos" and "Nazis" because they had come to Australia from Hungary and Poland or old Yugoslavia where they had to live under communism and be subject not just to its bad standard of living but to its persistent indignities and persecution.

Of course there were the young people in the student movements whom I met in the Democratic club and the Peace with Freedom movement.

Despite being somewhat conspiratorial -- we got written invitations to meetings and speakers were heavily controlled -- we risked being branded as warmongers (and worse getting bad marks).

These young people have grown middle-aged. Some of them, like me, were never particularly good at the political stuff, being too anarchic at the meetings or with a tendency to levity at the serious bits.

Others, such as a star novice politician for the Democratic club, Tony Abbott, continued to fight the pernicious influence of the Gramscian Long March long after the Vietnam War ended and the soldiers had come home, and another war is being fought on many levels.

The real culture wars probably began then and they are still going on despite Prime Minister Julia Gillard's confident prediction that they are over.

Surely what we should be asking ourselves now is what happened to all that communist fervour? Did it just disappear into some counter-cultural Trotskyist Never Never land, where all the old ideologies end up?

No, it ended up in feminism and the new "green" movement and the generally renamed "progressive" causes such as the gay lobby (a real favourite, that one): areas quite deliberately and carefully chosen for the amount of havoc they cause to the accepted structures of stable societies.

Meanwhile the anti-communist movement here -- which began in the industrial groups, transformed the political scene and then moved into academe to oppose the progressives -- was to be sure, somewhat limited.

It was not just monocultural, it was trenchantly anti-multicultural. It needed people outside the old Catholic Irish conservative group, people from diverse backgrounds, and realised this too late. (I was accepted with my Italian name with because I, like the Santamarias, was not too Italian.)

The responses of readers to Carr's piece were particularly enlightening. As one reader pointed out, someone should tell Carr about the number of Catholics who lost ALP endorsement as parliamentarians because of their opposition to communism within the Labor Party.

The problem now is that the contagion they were fighting is not eclipsed. Aarons's revelations might just seem interesting historical revisionism if it had not been for the eventual morphing of the communist cause into something far more subtle, more fluid and, because of its subtlety, more dangerous.

Australia didn't succumb to political communism, but the Long March is still going. Its focus is different: it is the most basic structure of society itself. It is the family.

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

The Trumping Factor

Quadrant article -June 2010 issue

Politics
The Trumping Factor

Peter Smith

One of the mysteries of life is that once you have established that someone is an economic socialist or an economic conservative you can then go on to predict with a fair degree of accuracy their views across a range of contentious non-economic matters. Of course, you can also proceed by going from another non-economic matter and reach the same end. I choose to start the process with economics because of my own background in economics but also because it is through economics and Karl Marx that the modern cultural Left–conservative divide originates.

It has puzzled me for some time. You are having coffee with someone who you are still getting to know and venture out of mundane conversation into some news item. From your companion’s response you will know immediately that you will either agree about everything of importance or about nothing. There is seldom an in-between.

The question I will try to address is why those on the Left think as they do across a diverse range of subject matter and issues—and why those on the conservative Right think as they do. Is there a common factor that once understood makes sense of the fall of views? My geographical context is the Anglosphere (the UK, North America, Australia and New Zealand) and Western Europe. I am not sure that the same Left–Right divide applies in the rest of the world.

As a broad generalisation, and without trying to be exhaustive, those on the Left tend to have economic views as follows:

• Free markets produce chronically unfair outcomes that must be corrected by government intervention to redistribute income and wealth.

• Cyclical downswings must be countered by Keynesian stimulus spending.

• People are entitled to a minimum level of income, adequate shelter, quality education and health (and now to child minding services).

• Globalisation has a range of deleterious side effects on local communities.

• Wealthy nations have a duty to provide substantial aid to poorer nations.

To some extent the demarcation between Left and conservative views is one of degree and emphasis but it is still easy enough to spot the differences. An economic conservative would want a minimum of intervention and then to improve opportunities rather than to equalise outcomes; would disagree about the worth of stimulus spending; would replace the concept of entitlement with one of aspiration; would point to the benefits of globalisation in increasing prosperity; and would not see foreign aid as an obligation but as a transfer payment from domestic taxpayers, with an attendant need to assess its affordability and effectiveness pragmatically.

Now consider the position of those on the Left and conservatives on a number of issues across three different subject areas: biology, the environment and politics. To some extent I have put the Left and conservative positions in too sharp a relief. But I think the general thrust and character of the different positions is fairly close to the mark. In some cases the positions are not diametrically opposed but have a different emphasis or focus. Again, the issues brought into play are meant to be illustrative, not exhaustive. I have also deliberately left out some particularly contentious issues: abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage, capital punishment, even though they tend to exhibit a political divide bias, because to an extent views on them are greatly influenced by religious affiliations. I have also left out Darwinian evolution, even though scepticism about the completeness of Darwinism is more prevalent among conservatives than among those on the Left, again because positions are often decided (inappropriately) on religious grounds. Scientists like Richard Dawkins are as bad as Creationists in giving Darwinism the cloak of an alternative “religion” when it is purely a set of scientific hypotheses that is still work in progress.

Biology

Those on the Left tend to believe that there is no difference of substance, apart from the superficially obvious, between men and women. Conservatives believe that there are innate differences, which can bear on performance.

Those on the Left tend to believe that there are no differences of substance, apart from the superficially obvious, between different races and cultures. Conservatives believe that there are innate differences which can bear on performance.

Environment

Those on the Left are more likely to place environmental protection above economic growth than are conservatives. Consistent with this they are more likely to accept and want to counter perceived threats to the environment, such as man-made global warming, without the same regard for costs as conservatives.

Those on the Left support the development of green energy and oppose nuclear energy. Conservatives support any form of energy provided it can stand on its own economic feet and meet appropriate and measured environmental and safety requirements.

Those on the Left support taxing or otherwise impeding or preventing the development of energy sources, particularly fossil fuels, which despoil the environment. Conservatives are not opposed to imposing taxes to compensate for environmental damage, provided such damage is objectively assessed across all energy sources. And provided any consequential costs of imposing taxes, for example, in lessening the international competitiveness of local industry, are brought into account.

Politics

Those on the Left believe that American “imperialism” has caused much harm in the world. Conservatives believe that America has been a powerful net force for good in the world.

Those on the Left believe that the Palestinians often have right on their side in their conflict with Israel. Conservatives believe that Israel’s security is non-negotiable.

Those on the Left readily accept, whether it is true, false or indeterminate, that indigenous peoples were cruelly and extensively exploited by colonisers and, accordingly, they support apologies and reparations. Conservatives believe that indigenous disadvantage should primarily be tackled by improving opportunities for advancement rather than by looking to the distant past. Of course, those on the Left also support improving opportunities for indigenous people, but accompanied by a grievance agenda which they believe is justified.

Those on the Left tend to be more critical than celebratory of their nation’s past. Conservatives tend to be more celebratory than critical of their nation’s past.

Those on the Left favour opening doors wider to refugees. Conservatives believe that immigration should primarily be geared to the national interest.

Those on the Left believe in nuclear disarmament and peace. Conservatives believe that eliminating the West’s nuclear weapons would be too risky whatever international disarmament agreements and monitoring policies are put in place; and that freedom can only ever be assured by a preparedness to go to war.

Why Only Two Camps?

The objective is to assess whether there is a common factor that cuts across different subject areas in a way which makes sense of the dispersion of Left and conservative positions, and explains their predictability. After all, why should those who believe in government intervention to modify the outcomes of capitalism necessarily believe in man-made global warming? Why should those who believe in the primacy of free market capitalism be, on the whole, sceptical about man-made global warming? Why should those who passionately advocate using green energy, support making apologies and reparations to indigenous peoples? Why should those who believe that America has done net harm; that Palestinians have more right than wrong on their side; and who favour nuclear disarmament, also tend to dismiss any idea of performance-related gender and racial differences? Why in other words are we in only two camps? Why aren’t there many camps? As an example, why aren’t there lots of economic conservatives belonging to peace movements?

It is understandable having only two camps when we consider warring nation-states. It doesn’t matter what your views happen to be across a number of matters, your nationality trumps them all. Something is also doing the trumping when it comes to Left and conservative views. There are a number of potential candidates: intelligence, socio-economic status, personality type, or what might be loosely called “gender orientation”. I will suggest that the latter, more rigorously explained and defined, seems to offer an answer which best fits the evidence.

It is fairly clear that whatever is doing the trumping, it isn’t intelligence. Even though both sides often express exasperation with the other’s inability to grasp “the point”, neither side has, or believes it has, any measurable edge on intelligence. It is also clear that socio-economic factors are not the trumping factors. In Sydney, upmarket Balmain leans Left. Billionaires can be found on either side, as can professionals, like lawyers, engineers, economists and doctors. You can’t say that actors and entertainers can be found much on the conservative side, but then again we have the late Charlton Heston’s line that more closet Republicans live in Hollywood than closet gays. The media and academia tend to be Left but it is by no means a monopoly.

Personality might come into it but on examination this seems unlikely. There are many variants of personality. Sixteen seems to be the magic number when you search online. I quickly found three different sets of sixteen personality types in one search, which gave me no confidence at all in the science. But the “Big Five Factors” in psychology are openness, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness and neuroticism, each contrasted with its opposite. (See, for example, Handbook of Personality, by John, Robins and Pervin.) When I looked at the various personality types, however they were described, it seemed unlikely that they could explain what makes Left and what makes conservative. I have known, and observed, extroverted people (externally-focused people) and introverted (internally focused people), conscientious and cautious people, and maybe a few disagreeable and neurotic people. They appear to be distributed among the Left and conservatives. So I doubt that personality type is the trumping factor. This leaves what I called “gender orientation”.

Social welfare entitlements have grown rapidly in scope and size since the end of the Second World War. Government entitlement spending is growing at unaffordable rates across Europe. The example of Greece has been in the headlines. President Obama is busy extending entitlements in the United States, seemingly with ambition to match the European model; and we recently had Tony Abbott promising new parents six months leave on generous pay. Providing people with entitlements might be considered a nurturing and protective thing to do. This appears to be quintessentially feminine in its orientation.

There is a view that Western society is becoming more feminised. I Googled “feminization of society” and got 640,000 references. I looked up “masculinization of society” and got only 50,000 or so references; and, at least on the first page, they were mostly about physiology rather than sociology. I also recalled two recent articles in Quadrant. Patrick McCauley in the September 2008 issue wrote entertainingly that for some years, “Australian Rules football has been in the hands of feminine social engineers who wish to establish equity and social justice in the football community”. Michael Evans, writing in the January-February 2010 issue on stoicism and the military, commented that “radical feminism” is one of a number of developments since the 1960s representing the “greatest challenge to the Western profession of arms”.

Any number of conservative views can be found suggesting that feminisation and the Left’s agenda go hand-in-hand and, moreover, that this agenda has been responsible for feminising Western society. In this context, the growth of the nanny state and a culture of entitlement are often cited as epitomising the Left’s agenda.

While I will return to the question of whether feminism is on the march, my main focus is on the influence of feminism and masculinism on the Left–conservative (L–C) divide. Football, the military, a culture of entitlement span a wide area suggesting that the influence of gender orientation may be far-reaching. The question arises as to whether a feminine–masculine (F–M) divide could account for the entire L–C divide? Is it the trumping factor?

First, it is necessary to think of feminism and masculinism in rather different ways than the obvious. Prime Minister Clement Attlee, who gave the United Kingdom its welfare state, and President Roosevelt, who through the New Deal started the process in the United States, hardly epitomised femininity, at least to my mind.

I turned to the Encyclopedia of Sociology (Macmillan, 2000) and specifically to a paper by J.E. Stets and P.J. Burke titled, “Femininity/Masculinity”. The feminine temperament in Western culture is characterised as “passive”, “co-operative” and “expressive”; the masculine temperament as “aggressive”, “competitive” and “instrumental”. These characteristics of temperament (a person’s nature as it affects their behaviour) cut across women and men. The import of passive versus aggressive and co-operative versus competitive is fairly self-evident. In this context, “expressive” means a commitment to, or socialisation with, others (arising out of, say, affection or kinship) as an end in itself; as against “instrumental”, meaning a social action purposefully pursued after evaluating the costs and consequences in order to achieve practical goals.

I will use the Stets and Burke categorisation of feminine and masculine temperament to assess whether the F–M divide might be the trumping factor in explaining the L–C divide across economics, biology, the environment, and politics.

If we look at the economic positions held by those on the Left and by conservatives, a pattern emerges which is consistent with the F–M divide, as it is exhibited in the expressive–instrumental divide. In particular, the Left’s position is characterised by a lack of calculation. The overriding objective is one of showing commitment to others. That is the be-all and end-all. The conservative position on the other hand is goal-oriented and full of calculation. Will stimulus spending actually work? Can we afford those entitlements? Do the benefits of globalisation outweigh the costs? A lot falls into place when the L–C economic divide is put in context of the expressive–instrumental divide. It is why those on the Left can think conservatives lack empathy and why conservatives can get exasperated with those on the Left who celebrate yet another new entitlement without regard to its cost and achievability. President Obama was fond of citing cases of apparent hardship in supporting his health care agenda—stories of people falling ill and being forced to sell their homes. This has obvious appeal to those whose temperament is more expressive than instrumental.

The other components of the F–M divide—passive–aggressive and co-operative–competitive—also have explanatory powers in the economics area. Capitalism is underscored by a determined and energetic (aggressive) pursuit of profit and reward. It is competitive in its nature. It is understandable that those with a passive and co-operative temperament would favour intervention to moderate the outcomes that capitalism produces; built as it is around aggression and competition.

Though it is a leap to turn from economics to biology, the F–M divide retains its explanatory power. The L–C biological positions I have identified refer to different views about whether innate performance-affecting differences exist between different groups. Performance is the key in this case; and it is evident that those whose temperament is weighted towards being expressive, co-operative and passive will not so much focus on performance. Consequently they will have no imperative to look for innate differences or acknowledge them. On the other hand, those whose temperament is weighted towards being instrumental, competitive and aggressive will very much focus on performance. Consequently, they will have an imperative to discover and identify innate differences, if such differences exist. The F–M divide again therefore fits well with the L–C biology divide.

Among other things, the Left’s support for affirmative action falls out of the biology divide. Affirmative action is based on the view that any under-representation of particular groups in particular occupations is because of environmental factors, rather than because of innate differences in abilities between different groups. If that is the case, affirmative action makes more sense than it does if there are in fact innate differences. Conservatives think that there may in fact be innate differences. Harvard president Larry Summers suggested at a conference about women in science in 2005 that there may be innate differences between men and women in their aptitude for the hard sciences. Universities these days are not the place for outspoken conservative views; particularly on touchy biological matters, as now ex-president Summers discovered.

At first glance, it is not immediately obvious that the L–C environmental divide can be explained by the F–M divide. After all, environmentalists are not particularly passive in pursuing their objectives. Nevertheless, the lack of attention to the achievability and costs of proposals put forward by environmentalists (for example, on moving to green energy or in combatting global warming) has the hallmark of an expressive temperament. Moreover, the actions taken by environmental zealots often have a Mahatma Gandhi quality about them: chaining oneself to a tree, or standing in front of bulldozers. Finally, environmentalism can be seen as co-operative action opposing an individualistic competitive credo—capitalism—which puts economic advancement ahead of the interests of the planet. All in all, the F–M divide does a fairly good job of explaining the L–C environmental divide.

The political divide covers a wide canvas, but one of the major themes running through it is a view about Western civilisation’s military and economic dominance, and how it was achieved. Dominance is only ever achieved through being purposeful (instrumental), determined and energetic (aggressive) and competitive. It is understandable therefore that the outcome of this process is celebrated by conservatives and regarded with an amount of distaste by those whose temperament is largely governed by opposite characteristics. Nor is it surprising that the epitome of dominance, the United States, is regarded with particular odium by those on the Left. This also explains the Left’s empathy with those it regards as victims of the process: Palestinians, indigenous populations, and Third World countries who continue to suffer at the hands of the “rapacious” West. It explains national “self-loathing”, which conservatives have particular difficulty in comprehending, as a logical outcome of despising the process that put us, as a nation (whether that nation is United States, Australia, the UK or some other Western nation), in the position we are in.

On immigration and refugees, an expressive, co-operative and passive temperament does not focus on costs and potential threats. Conservatives with their opposite temperament precisely focus on costs and threats. On disarmament and peace, an expressive, co-operative and passive temperament always searches for a negotiated outcome. Republicans in the United States were extremely sceptical and scathing of proposals by President Obama to negotiate with Kim Jong-il and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. They implicitly knew, whether they acknowledge it or not, that Kim Jong-il and Ahmadinejad are like them, mainly instrumental, aggressive and competitive, and that appeasement would not work. As Ronald Reagan put it: “If history teaches us anything; it teaches: simple minded appeasement or wishful thinking about our adversaries is folly—it means the betrayal of our past, the squandering of our freedom.” President Obama is largely “governed” by a temperament opposite to that of President Reagan, and it is hard to understand his actions against the lessons of history unless that is understood.

My hypothesis is that the L–C divide can be explained by the F–M divide. The temperament of those on the Left, I suggest, is weighted more towards being expressive, co-operative and passive than it is to being instrumental, competitive and aggressive. The temperament of conservatives is weighted in the opposite direction. This explains why Left and conservative views fall predictably along “party lines” across all subject matter, related and unrelated. It explains why the two sides exasperate each other in reaching quite different conclusions based on the same information and evidence.

Personally it helps me to deal with views that I otherwise find inexplicable and hard to deal with. I was copied in on an e-mail exchange between two neighbours of mine both decrying the attention given to the so-called boat people. One wrote that we are all (in Australia) descended from boat people as though that finished the debate. By the way, they both believe in man-made global warming. I haven’t tested their other views; I am too afraid to, it might ruin our future coffee chats.

Where does all this lead? A first point to make is that one kind of temperament is not better than the other. Individuals and societies need to have a balance of feminine and masculine characteristics. To paraphrase Ecclesiastes, there is a time for being expressive and a time for being instrumental; for being passive and for being aggressive; and for being co-operative and for being competitive. One could imagine a society having only masculine characteristics being totally uncaring and being constantly at war economically and militarily; and one with only feminine characteristics being subjugated economically and militarily. Neither is appealing. Balance is the key. This leads on to whether we have the right balance now; and back to the view previously canvassed that Western society is becoming progressively more feminised.

If it is right that gender orientation explains the positions of those from the Left and conservatives across all subject matter, then a process of induction clearly points to Western societies becoming more, and too, feminised. Entitlements and the promise of entitlements are everywhere growing, even though most governments outspend their revenue and are heavily in debt. Green political parties are gaining increasing support, even though the implementation of their policies would cause impoverishment. There is widespread support for disruptive and expensive (and likely ineffective) policies to counter an unproven climate threat. Off-shore drilling for oil is often resisted and disallowed because it might cause limited environmental harm. Affirmative action is an accepted part of public sector employment policy; except when it is particularly egregious, as in the recent case of the New Haven Connecticut firefighters refused promotion because too few black firefighters passed the applicable exams. Western governments acquiesce to large inflows of displaced people and refugees, even though the numbers involved are clearly straining social cohesion and budgets. Apologies to indigenous populations are de rigueur whatever the rights and wrongs. Wars can never be prosecuted without dealing with trenchant media criticism and what in an early age would have been called defeatism. The United States and its allies have singularly failed to deter North Korea and Iran from developing nuclear weapons. President Obama has committed the United States not to use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state that is a signatory to the non-proliferation treaty, even if the United States is attacked with chemical or biological weapons. In making this commitment, Obama has reportedly removed ambiguity about the United States’ nuclear policy. Having a quite different temperament, President Reagan no doubt saw advantage in ambiguity to confound and confuse potential enemies.

A priori it is problematic to say that this or that societal balance of feminine and masculine temperament is right or wrong. However, sometimes the evidence speaks for itself. It helps in acknowledging this evidence to have a masculine-weighted temperament; but in some areas the facts become insistent whatever your temperament. Greece is finding out that it can’t go on doling out entitlements that outstrip its ability to go on borrowing. Other Western countries, not least the United States with its massive public debt, will all eventually come up against financial constraints of the kind we are all used to in our personal lives. At some point comes a hard realisation that a country is simply a collection of people who cannot go on forever paying themselves more than they earn. The problem is that a long road of undermining self-reliance will have been travelled before that point is reached. And it is difficult to know whether it can ever be substantially retraced.

The lessons can of course be harder for countries that lose the will to wage war. Unfortunately, the barbarians are always at the gate and it’s an unequal battle unless a Churchill or a Thatcher or a Reagan or a Bush is around to draw a line in the sand. And they are less likely to be around if society continues to become more and more feminised.

Why Western society is becoming more feminised, I don’t know. Sociologists are insistent that temperament is not hard-wired, but learnt. This certainly accords with the evidence. It is hardly likely that relatively more people are now being born with a Left-temperament bias. An iterative process may be involved, with the entitlement society engendering dependency which, in turn, engenders claims for more entitlements, rather like an addiction. That appeals to me because it has an economic base to it that I can understand. It may also have something to do with the rise of the feminist and gay rights movements or with the increasing predominance of women in early childhood education, or with other social or physiological factors that I don’t understand.

I read a piece which suggested that the purposeless (my word) social networks created by Twitter, Facebook, MySpace, and the like, were playing a part in feminising society. This made sense in so far as “expressive” social interaction for its own sake is a characteristic of a feminine temperament. It is not promising if it is true, because the internet will not go away and it has been with us for only a relatively short time. Its full impact has still to be felt. Whatever the cause of feminisation, it would be nice to think that its unbalanced growth might be countered in some way before it irretrievably drags down Western civilisation.

Peter Smith is a former CEO of the Australian Payments Clearing Association. He wrote “Taxing the Rich and Spreading the Wealth” in the March issue.